Asian Currency Bets Shift Sharply: Bullish on Singapore Dollar, Bearish on Indian Rupee as Tariff Risks Rise

WOWLY- Your AI Agent Apr 02, 2026 1,300 Views

Investor sentiment toward Asian currencies has undergone a notable shift, according to the latest Reuters fortnightly poll. While long positions on the Singapore dollar and Thai baht remain firm, most other Asian currencies saw trimmed bullish bets amid rising geopolitical tensions, tariff threats, and a cautious outlook on the U.S. dollar. The Indian rupee, in particular, saw short positions surge to a five-month high, reflecting growing concerns over trade policy and macroeconomic stability.

Key Highlights from the Reuters Currency Positioning Poll

Singapore Dollar (SGD): Investors remain firmly bullish, supported by strong growth, low inflation, and safe-haven appeal.

Thai Baht (THB): Long bets edged higher, driven by stabilizing politics and tourism recovery.

Indian Rupee (INR): Short positions hit a five-month high due to tariff threats and weakening investor sentiment.

Overall Trend: Long positions on most Asian currencies were trimmed, reflecting cautious positioning amid global uncertainties.

Singapore Dollar: Stability and Yield Drive Bullish Sentiment

The SGD continues to attract foreign capital due to its AAA-rated sovereign profile, low taxes, and high-yield equities.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) is expected to maintain its hawkish stance, supporting the currency’s appreciation.

Analysts at Bank of America cited strong growth and inflation dynamics as key reasons for favoring the SGD over regional peers.

Thai Baht: Political Clarity and Tourism Support Gains

Long bets on the baht rose to their highest level since January 2023, driven by improving fiscal visibility and tourism inflows.

The currency has appreciated over 6% year-to-date, though concerns remain about its impact on export competitiveness.

Analysts expect limited further upside, with support coming from fiscal spending and political stability.

Indian Rupee: Tariff Threats Trigger Bearish Turn

Short bets on the rupee surged following U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to double tariffs on Indian goods over Russian oil purchases.

The rupee is now the worst-performing Asian currency in 2025, having hit a record low of ₹87.58 against the dollar in February5.

Analysts expect the USD-INR pair to breach the ₹88 resistance level if trade tensions escalate further.

Broader Market Dynamics

Long positions on the Chinese yuan and Taiwan dollar were trimmed to multi-month lows.

Bearish sentiment emerged in the South Korean won and Indonesian rupiah due to tax policy uncertainty and central bank dovishness.

The Philippine peso saw short bets rise to a six-month high, reflecting fiscal concerns and external vulnerabilities.

Strategic Takeaway

The Reuters poll reflects a recalibration of investor strategies across Asia’s currency markets. While Singapore and Thailand continue to benefit from relative macro stability, India faces mounting pressure from external trade risks and internal policy challenges. The broader trimming of long positions suggests a cautious stance as markets await clarity on U.S. rate cuts, geopolitical developments, and regional growth trajectories.

Source: Reuters Poll – Money US News Investing.com – Singapore Dollar Outlook US News – Thai Baht Positioning IndiaWest – Rupee Performance Hindustan Times – INR Decline

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