India’s Sugar Output Set to Sweeten in 2025–26 with 30 Million Tonnes Forecast

Overview:

India’s sugar industry is gearing up for a rebound in the 2025–26 marketing year, with net output projected at 30 million tonnes, according to the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories (NFCSF). This marks a recovery from the previous season’s dip and reflects improved weather conditions, expanded cane acreage, and timely policy support. The forecast comes as global sugar markets brace for increased supply from India and Brazil, potentially influencing prices and trade flows.

Key Highlights from Producers’ Body:

- Net sugar output for 2025–26 estimated at 30 million tonnes
- Represents a 16 percent increase from the previous season’s 25.82 million tonnes
- Boost driven by expanded cane area and favorable monsoon impact
- Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Uttar Pradesh expected to lead the recovery

Production Drivers and Regional Trends:

The projected rise in sugar output is attributed to multiple agronomic and policy factors.
- The 2024 monsoon replenished groundwater and reservoir levels across key cane-growing states
- Farmers responded with increased planting, especially in Maharashtra and Karnataka
- The government’s early announcement of Fair and Remunerative Price (FRP) at Rs 355 per quintal encouraged timely sowing
- Sugar recovery rates are expected to improve to 9.5 percent, up from 8 percent last season
State-Wise Performance Outlook:

- Maharashtra:

- Expected to contribute over 10 million tonnes
- Benefited from expanded cane area and improved irrigation

- Uttar Pradesh:

- Output likely to rise to 9.5 million tonnes
- Stable weather and institutional procurement supported planting

- Karnataka:

- Forecasted to produce around 4.5 million tonnes
- Reservoir levels and FRP hike boosted farmer sentiment

Global Context and Trade Implications:

India’s sugar rebound aligns with global trends, as Brazil also anticipates record output.
- USDA projects India’s raw sugar production at 35.3 million tonnes, translating to 33 million tonnes of crystal sugar
- Global sugar output expected to rise by 8.6 million tonnes to 189.3 million tonnes in 2025–26
- India’s increased supply may lead to higher exports and larger ending stocks
- Export competitiveness could improve if domestic surplus persists

Consumption and Ethanol Diversion:

While production is set to rise, domestic consumption and ethanol blending targets will influence net availability.
- Human consumption projected at 31 million tonnes, up 5 percent year-on-year
- Ethanol diversion from sugarcane remains a strategic priority under India’s biofuel roadmap
- Producers may balance between sugar production and ethanol supply based on pricing and policy cues

Challenges and Risk Factors:

Despite the optimistic forecast, several risks remain on the horizon.
- Pest outbreaks and erratic rainfall in late monsoon could affect yields
- Global price volatility may impact export margins
- Logistics and storage infrastructure need scaling to handle surplus efficiently

Conclusion:

India’s sugar industry is poised for a strong recovery in 2025–26, with net output expected to touch 30 million tonnes. Backed by favorable weather, expanded cane acreage, and proactive policy support, the sector is set to regain momentum after a subdued previous season. As global markets adjust to increased supply, India’s producers will need to navigate trade dynamics, ethanol blending priorities, and infrastructure readiness to fully capitalize on the sweet surge.

Source: SugarToday, The Hindu BusinessLine, July 31, 2025.