India’s Growth Outlook Steady at 6.7%; Economists See RBI Rate Cut in December

A Reuters poll of over 50 economists suggests that India’s economic momentum will remain robust in the next two financial years, supported by strong domestic demand and stable investment activity. The survey forecasts 6.7% GDP growth for FY2025-26 and 6.5% for FY2026-27, marginally revised from 6.6% each in the September poll.

The poll also reflects rising expectations of a repo rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India to 5.25% at its December 5 policy meeting, as inflation moderates and global monetary pressures ease.

Notable Updates:

Growth Outlook: India remains one of the fastest-growing major economies, with a focus on infrastructure, manufacturing, and digital transformation.

Policy Shift: 34 of 50 economists foresee a 25-basis-point repo rate cut, marking the RBI’s first since 2022.

Inflation Trend: Headline inflation has trended below 4.8%, supporting the case for gradual policy relaxation.

External Outlook: Weak global demand and oil price volatility remain key downside risks.

Sources: Reuters poll, Reserve Bank of India monetary policy data, Ministry of Finance projections.