India’s sugar production is projected at 29.9 million tons for 2026/27, slightly higher than 29.5 million tons in 2025/26. Brazil’s Center-South output is forecast at 40.38 million tons. Despite these gains, the global sugar market faces a deficit of 1.50 million tons, reversing last season’s surplus.
Global sugar markets are bracing for a supply crunch as forecasts point to a deficit in the 2026/27 season. Rising demand and weather-linked production challenges are expected to outweigh modest output increases in India and Brazil.
India’s Production Outlook
India’s sugar output is expected to reach 29.9 million tons in 2026/27, up from 29.5 million tons in the previous season. The increase reflects stable cane yields, though concerns remain over monsoon variability and ethanol diversion policies.
Brazil’s Contribution
Brazil’s Center-South region, the world’s largest sugar producer, is forecast to deliver 40.38 million tons in 2026/27. While this represents strong output, global demand growth is likely to offset the supply, contributing to the projected deficit.
Key Highlights
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India sugar output forecast at 29.9 million tons in 2026/27
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Previous season production stood at 29.5 million tons
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Brazil’s Center-South output projected at 40.38 million tons
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Global sugar deficit of 1.50 million tons expected in 2026/27
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Contrast with surplus of 1.39 million tons in 2025/26
Future Outlook
Analysts warn that the deficit could push global sugar prices higher, impacting food and beverage industries worldwide. The shift from surplus to deficit highlights the volatility of agricultural commodities and the importance of weather and policy in shaping supply chains.
Sources: International Sugar Organization, Reuters, Economic Times