Asian Currency Sentiment Shifts: Rupee Short Bets Rise, Singapore and Taiwan Stay Strong

Investor sentiment toward Asian currencies has turned mixed, according to the latest Reuters poll, with short positions on the Indian rupee ticking higher while bullish bets on the Singapore dollar and Taiwan dollar remain resilient. The shift reflects evolving expectations around interest rate trajectories, trade tensions, and central bank interventions.

 

Key Highlights From The Currency Positioning Poll

 

- Short views on the Indian rupee increased amid expectations of a Reserve Bank of India rate cut and persistent dollar strength

- Bullish sentiment toward the Singapore dollar and Taiwan dollar held firm, supported by strong macro fundamentals and safe-haven appeal

- Investors trimmed long positions across most Asian currencies, including the Thai baht, Malaysian ringgit, and Indonesian rupiah, citing global uncertainty and narrowing rate differentials

 

Macro Drivers And Strategic Implications

 

- The rupee’s outlook has weakened due to slowing domestic growth, capital outflows, and tariff-related risks, with analysts forecasting a slide toward 87.80 per dollar by March 2026

- Singapore’s AAA-rated fiscal profile and stable inflation have bolstered investor confidence, while Taiwan’s tech-driven exports continue to support its currency

- The poll suggests a cautious stance among investors, with many reallocating toward currencies perceived as more resilient to trade disruptions and monetary shifts

 

Outlook

 

As the dollar steadies and geopolitical risks persist, Asian currency positioning is expected to remain fluid. Central bank actions and trade policy developments will be key in shaping near-term trends.

 

Sources: Reuters, CNBC TV18, Moneycontrol, Business Standard, Yahoo Finance, Channel NewsAsia, Investing.com.