Image Source: Asia Financial
A fresh Reuters poll reveals a sharp deterioration in investor sentiment across key Asian currencies, with bearish positions intensifying amid global monetary uncertainty, weak regional growth signals, and persistent dollar strength. The Indonesian rupiah, South Korean won, Taiwan dollar, and Chinese yuan have all come under pressure, reflecting a broader retreat from emerging market assets as the US Federal Reserve maintains a cautious stance on rate cuts.
The fortnightly survey of fund managers and analysts shows a marked shift in positioning, with short bets on the yuan hitting their highest since mid-May and the rupiah flipping bearish after a brief bullish phase. The won and Taiwan dollar continue to languish in negative territory, maintaining their bearish stance since early May.
Key Highlights
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Bearish bets on the Chinese yuan reached their highest level since May 15
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Analysts turned short on the yuan for the first time since mid-May
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The Indonesian rupiah flipped to a bearish stance after recent bullish positioning
South Korean won and Taiwan dollar have sustained bearish sentiment since early May
Indonesian Rupiah: From Resilience to Retreat
Shift in Sentiment
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The rupiah, which had shown signs of resilience earlier in Q2, has now reversed course
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Bearish bets emerged for the first time in nearly three months, driven by concerns over rate policy and inflation
Policy Dynamics
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Bank Indonesia recently paused its easing cycle, holding the benchmark rate at 5.25 percent to assess inflation risks
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Despite three rate cuts since January, sluggish loan growth and rising food inflation have complicated the central bank’s stance
Analysts expect further FX intervention to stabilize the currency, which has depreciated 2.1 percent against the dollar since July
South Korean Won and Taiwan Dollar: Persistent Pressure
Won Under Scrutiny
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The South Korean won remains under pressure due to weak export data and semiconductor sector uncertainty
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Short positions have persisted since early May, reflecting investor caution amid tax reform delays and geopolitical tensions
Taiwan Dollar’s Tech Woes
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The Taiwan dollar continues to face bearish sentiment, with short bets at a 19-month high
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Export-dependent sectors, especially semiconductors, are facing headwinds from potential US restrictions on AI chip sales
Domestic growth forecasts have been revised downward, adding to currency weakness
Chinese Yuan: Bearish Bets Peak Amid Growth Concerns
Sentiment Reversal
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Analysts turned short on the yuan for the first time since mid-May, with bearish bets hitting their highest since May 15
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The shift reflects growing skepticism over China’s economic recovery and policy effectiveness
Economic Headwinds
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Weak consumer demand, sluggish private investment, and property sector stress have weighed on the yuan
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The People’s Bank of China has maintained a cautious stance, setting daily midpoint guidance stronger than market expectations to curb volatility
Despite these efforts, the yuan has lost nearly 3 percent against the dollar in Q3
Macro Drivers Behind the FX Shift
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Strengthening US dollar amid expectations of slower Fed rate cuts has dampened appetite for Asian currencies
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Rising geopolitical risks, including trade tensions and semiconductor restrictions, have added to investor caution
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Domestic policy uncertainty and uneven growth trajectories across Asia have further contributed to bearish sentiment
Market Implications and Forward Outlook
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The shift in FX positioning could impact capital flows, with emerging markets facing tighter liquidity and higher borrowing costs
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Central banks in Asia may need to recalibrate their monetary strategies to defend currencies and support growth
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Investors are likely to remain selective, favoring currencies with strong fundamentals and policy clarity
Conclusion
The latest Reuters poll underscores a decisive pivot in Asia’s currency landscape, with bearish sentiment gaining ground across the region. As global monetary dynamics evolve and domestic challenges persist, the coming weeks will test the resilience of Asian central banks and the strategic agility of investors navigating a volatile FX environment.
Sources: Reuters, US News & World Report, ThePrint, Yahoo Finance, Business Standard, MarketScreener.
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