Glitter watch: Fed, RBI in focus as gold eyes a gleaming climb next week

Updated: December 01, 2025 05:13

Image Source: MSN

Gold looks poised to firm up next week as traders track the US Federal Reserve’s policy signals, Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks, and the RBI’s MPC outcome. MCX February 2026 gold futures rose 2.9% this week to ₹1,29,504 per 10 grams, with analysts saying prices could retest record levels amid macro uncertainty.

Market setup for the week ahead

Investors will parse US manufacturing and services PMI, jobs data, and consumer sentiment alongside Powell’s speech and the Fed’s policy stance for rate path clues that influence real yields and gold appeal. In India, the RBI’s MPC decision will shape rupee dynamics and domestic bullion demand, keeping prices supported.

On MCX, the February 2026 contract climbed ₹3,654 (2.9%) over the past week to close at ₹1,29,504 per 10 grams on Friday, marking a clean break from recent consolidation. Analysts say firm global cues and steady local demand could push prices toward previous highs if policy commentary skews dovish or data show growth cooling.

Broader market sentiment also centers on India’s first-week triggers—RBI policy, US data, FII flows, and commodity moves—setting a constructive backdrop for haven assets like gold as equities digest a multi-week rally and profit-taking at higher levels.

Key highlights

Macro drivers: Focus on US PMI, jobs, consumer sentiment, Powell’s speech, and the Fed’s rate guidance; RBI MPC outcome to steer local pricing and currency backdrop.

MCX performance: February 2026 gold futures up 2.9% this week to ₹1,29,504 per 10 grams, breaking consolidation and improving technical bias.

Analyst view: Prices could retest record highs if policy tone turns cautious and real yields ease; geopolitical headlines remain a secondary supportive tailwind.

Domestic context: RBI decision among top triggers for Indian markets in the coming week, with gold tracking risk sentiment and currency moves.

Positioning note: Short-term traders eye dips for adds; longer-term investors maintain staggered allocation given macro uncertainty and inflation hedging narratives.

Notable updates

Catalyst calendar: Powell’s remarks early in the week and RBI’s policy announcement on Friday are the marquee events for bullion directionality.

From consolidation to momentum: The breakout reflects shifting expectations on growth and rates, with technicals aligning to macro support.

Cross-asset lens: Indian equities enter December on mixed cues, increasing the relevance of diversification via gold exposure.

Conclusion: With the Fed and RBI in the spotlight, gold’s risk-reward tilts constructive. A cautious policy tone, softer data, or resilient haven demand could nudge prices toward prior peaks, while disciplined positioning around event risk remains key for traders and investors alike.

Sources: LiveMint, Free Press JournalFree Press Journal, The Economic Times

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