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Overview:
India is expected to receive above-normal rainfall during the months of August and September, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The forecast comes after a wetter-than-usual July and signals a strong second half of the monsoon season. The IMD attributes this outlook to evolving La Niña conditions and a favorable monsoon trough position, which could intensify precipitation across most regions.
Key Highlights from IMD’s Forecast:
- Rainfall across India in August and September projected to be 106 percent of the long-period average
- July rainfall was 9 percent above normal, boosting cumulative monsoon figures
- La Niña conditions likely to develop by late August, enhancing monsoon strength
- Heavy to very heavy rainfall expected in northwest and central India
- Northeast, Ladakh, and parts of southern India may see below-normal rainfall
Monsoon Performance So Far:
India has already received 453.8 mm of rainfall since June 1, surpassing the normal of 445.8 mm.
- July contributed significantly to this surplus, offsetting a dry June
- Central India recorded 33 percent more rainfall than usual in July
- Over 1,200 stations reported heavy or very heavy rainfall during the month
Regional Rainfall Outlook:
The IMD’s regional breakdown highlights varying rainfall patterns across the country.
- Northwest India, including Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Jammu & Kashmir, will likely see intense spells
- Rajasthan and adjoining areas of Madhya Pradesh are also expected to receive heavy rainfall
- Northeast India, Saurashtra, Kutch, and parts of southern peninsula may experience deficient rain
- Western Himalayan region could see below-normal precipitation
Impact on Agriculture and Infrastructure:
Above-normal rainfall during August and September could have mixed implications for agriculture and infrastructure.
- While good rainfall supports kharif crop growth, excessive rain may damage standing crops in late monsoon
- In 2023, heavy September rain led to soybean crop losses in Madhya Pradesh
- Landslides and flash floods remain a concern in hilly regions like Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand
- Urban centers may face waterlogging and traffic disruptions due to intense downpours
Climate Drivers and Meteorological Insights:
The IMD attributes the rainfall surge to favorable oceanic and atmospheric conditions.
- La Niña, characterized by cooler Pacific waters, enhances monsoon activity over India
- The monsoon trough is expected to remain in its normal position, aiding rain distribution
- Low-pressure systems forming in the Bay of Bengal may travel west-northwest, intensifying rainfall in central and northern India
- Western disturbances could further influence precipitation patterns in September
Temperature and Air Quality Trends:
Alongside rainfall, temperature and air quality dynamics are also shifting.
- Maximum temperatures are expected to be higher than normal in most regions
- Some areas in the Gangetic plains and southeast coast may see below-normal temperatures
- Air quality in urban centers like Delhi remains in the satisfactory range despite monsoon-related disruptions
Conclusion:
India’s monsoon outlook for August and September paints a picture of robust rainfall activity, driven by evolving La Niña conditions and favorable atmospheric setups. While this bodes well for water availability and crop support, it also raises concerns around flooding, landslides, and urban resilience. As the country braces for a rain-heavy second half of the monsoon, preparedness and adaptive strategies will be key to mitigating risks and maximizing benefits.
Source: Hindustan Times, The Hindu, Business Standard, July 31, 2025.
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