India is gearing up for a robust new sugar marketing year, starting October 1, 2025, with carryover stocks estimated at around 5 million tonnes, according to government officials and industry bodies. Despite challenges in the previous season, the country is poised to see an uptick in sugar consumption to between 28.5 to 29 million tonnes. With ample stock availability and positive demand projections, India’s sugar exports are expected to increase, offering significant opportunities for millers and growers alike.
Carryover Stocks and Market Dynamics:
The marketing year will commence with substantial carryover stocks of approximately 5 million tonnes, providing a buffer against supply-demand fluctuations in the domestic market.
These stocks have been accumulated from the previous season’s surplus, offering mills sufficient liquidity and operational flexibility moving into the new season.
Government and industry analysts stress that maintaining healthy inventory levels will help stabilize domestic sugar prices and support cane farmer payments.
Consumption Forecast and Demand Drivers:
India’s sugar consumption in the new season is anticipated to rise from current estimates of 28 million tonnes to a range between 28.5 and 29 million tonnes.
Rising consumption is driven by improving rural demand, steadily growing urban appetites, and increased sugar use in processed foods and beverages.
Seasonal factors such as festive occasions, as well as the post-pandemic economic revival, are expected to boost demand further.
Export Potential:
Encouraged by surplus production prospects and robust carryover stocks, industry bodies forecast favorable conditions for sugar exports in the 2025-26 season.
The Indian Sugar and Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) has recommended permitting around 2 million tonnes of sugar exports, doubling from the previous year’s 1 million tonne quota.
Expanding exports will help address domestic surpluses, improve cash flows for millers, and maintain export competitiveness in global markets.
Ethanol and Diversion Trends:
Ethanol demand is playing an increasingly important role with an expected diversion of 5 million tonnes of sugarcane towards ethanol production, up from 3.4 million tonnes in the current season.
This shift supports the government’s push for cleaner energy while moderating sugar availability to prevent market gluts.
Higher ethanol production also offers an avenue for value addition to cane crops, benefiting farmers and the sugar industry.
Industry and Government Perspectives:
ISMA President Gautam Goel expressed optimism about the forthcoming sugar season, highlighting improved production estimates and better monsoon conditions underpinning robust supply.
There is anticipation that the government will extend policies facilitating exports and ethanol pricing to support sector stability.
The balance of ample stocks, rising consumption, and export scope suggests a sweet outlook for growers, millers, and traders.
Price and Quality Outlook:
Sugar prices are expected to remain stable due to balanced supplies and strong demand fundamentals.
Market participants continue to watch global sugar futures and currency fluctuations that influence export competitiveness.
Quality improvements through better harvest practices and mechanization are also enhancing India’s position in global sugar markets.
Conclusion:
India’s sugar sector is preparing for a promising 2025-26 marketing year supported by healthy carryover stocks, rising domestic consumption, and expanded export opportunities. Strategic diversion of cane to ethanol production and governmental policy support further enhance market stability. These factors combined position India to maintain its status as the world’s second-largest sugar producer while benefiting stakeholders across the value chain from farmers to exporters.
Relevant Sources: ChiniMandi.com, Economic Times, Reuters, Times of India, Business Standard, Bloomberg: India
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