Image Source : Grants Pass Tribune
India’s growth momentum has strengthened notably in recent months, with a combination of easing inflation and robust domestic demand sparking optimism across markets, households, and boardrooms nationwide. Latest government statistics and policy statements highlight resilient fundamentals, strong rural and urban consumption, and a favorable outlook for the coming quarters.
Key Highlights
Real GDP grew 6.5% in 2024–25, marking India as the fastest expanding major economy globally.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation dropped to 2.1% in June and 1.55% in July 2025, the lowest point since January 2019, well below RBI’s 4% target.
Food price inflation cooled sharply, with the Consumer Food Price Index at 0.99% in May and negative numbers for some categories in June, signaling relief on kitchen staples.
Capital markets see record retail participation, while exports and services boom adds an extra layer of support for growth.
Growth Drivers: Consumer Boom and Policy Support
Private consumption and investment spending were the main engines for real GDP advancement last fiscal, with both urban and rural demand proving more resilient than anticipated.
NABARD’s rural sentiment survey found more than three-fourths of rural households increased their consumption over the past year. Income levels also improved, fueled by farm output and government rural spending.
The Make in India initiative, digitalization push, and service sector dynamism—especially IT and financial services—continue to drive job creation and consumer confidence.
Inflation Trajectory and Monetary Response
CPI inflation fell to 2.1% in June and further to 1.55% in July 2025, a dramatic decline supported by lower prices of vegetables, pulses, grains, and global oil stability.
WPI inflation has also turned negative, reflecting softer input costs from mineral oils and basic metals to crude oil and natural gas.
The Reserve Bank of India cut the repo rate to 5.5% from 6.5% in January, offering businesses cheaper credit and supporting economic expansion, while headline inflation is now forecast at 3.1% for FY26.
External Sector Boost: Exports and Balance
Exports in Q1 FY26 touched $210.31 billion, rising by nearly 6% on-year, led by electronics, food, tea, jute, and animal products.
India’s trade deficit narrowed 9.4% in the period, supported by buoyant services exports, which surged 10.93% to $98.13 billion.
External risks remain—geopolitical uncertainties and global demand changes—but stability in global commodity prices keeps imported inflation in check.
Capital Markets and Household Wealth
Stock markets have outperformed many other emerging markets, with market confidence at record highs.
The number of retail investors more than doubled since 2019, reflecting growing public belief in wealth creation and national economic prospects.
Financial reforms, higher tax exemption thresholds, and robust corporate profits support a virtuous cycle of savings, investment, and spending.
Forward Outlook: Opportunities and Challenges
Strong economic momentum is forecast to push GDP growth further, with projections between 6.4% and 6.7% in FY26 per leading economic outlooks.
Continued demographic shifts are likely to create millions of new middle-income and affluent households, reinforcing domestic demand’s role as India’s growth engine.
Risks include global trade disruptions, supply chain issues, and the need to boost per capita income via job creation and skill upgradation—especially in tech and green sectors.
Conclusion
With inflation easing to multi-year lows and growth drivers firmly in place, India stands at a promising juncture for sustainable economic acceleration. Positive policy moves, stable prices, and a confident consumer base combine to make the coming year a bright prospect for inclusive growth and long-term prosperity.
Source: Deloitte Economic Outlook, PIB, Financial Express, DD News, August 2025
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