The Indian equity market remains a focal point for investors amid global economic uncertainties, and Axis Securities has delivered a bullish forecast for the Nifty 50 index, projecting it to hit 25,500 by March 2026. This outlook is underpinned by robust earnings growth expected in FY26 and a favourable market valuation, making the period ahead ripe with opportunities. Alongside this forecast, Axis Securities has identified 15 promising stocks across large-cap, mid-cap, and small-cap segments for investors targeting double-digit returns in the coming months.
Key Insights on Nifty 50 Outlook
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Axis Securities revised the Nifty 50 target to 25,500 by March 2026 based on a valuation multiple of 20 times March 2027 earnings, reflecting optimism fueled by expected earnings growth from Q3FY26 onwards.
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The Indian market has corrected significantly from past highs, with about 28% of NSE500 stocks down over 30% from their 52-week peak, suggesting current valuations incorporate negative factors, opening a buying opportunity.
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Compared to emerging markets (EM), India's equity indices now trade at a 49% price-to-earnings (PE) premium versus the historical average of 44%, enhanced by India's stronger economic growth and a steady earnings outlook.
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Axis Securities foresees continued outperformance of Indian equities over EM due to a well-capitalised banking system, robust demand across sectors, and a revival of private capital expenditure cycles.
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While March 2026 base case stands at 25,500, the brokerage also indicates a potential upside to 26,800 in a bullish environment characterized by reduced volatility and a soft landing for the US economy, and a downside floor near 21,600 if adverse policy shifts or recession risks materialize.
Stocks Picked for Double-Digit Gains
Axis Securities handpicked 15 stocks across varying market caps expected to deliver significant returns with target prices reflecting upside potential ranging generally from 15% to over 30% in the next 12 months. Noteworthy recommendations include:
Bajaj Finance: Target price Rs 1,100, offering around 24% upside, bolstered by strong consumer finance demand and premium valuation.
State Bank of India (SBI): Target Rs 1,025, with 27% upside expected due to improving credit cycle and operational efficiencies.
HDFC Bank: Target Rs 1,150, with 21% potential gains amid steady growth and quality asset management.
Bharti Airtel: Predicted to gain 27.5% supported by expanding 5G services and growing customer base.
Hero MotoCorp: Target Rs 6,245 (upside 15%), riding on stronger domestic demand and new product launches.
Lupin and Max Healthcare Institute: Picked for healthcare sector growth driven by product innovation and expanding services, with expected gains of around 26-32%.
Prestige Estates Projects, Avenue Supermarts, Mahanagar Gas, and others also feature prominently for their sectoral strength and earnings momentum.
Market and Policy Context
Axis Securities also highlights the supportive macroeconomic environment, including recent RBI actions such as rate cuts and a reduction in the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR), which increases liquidity and bolsters credit growth. Furthermore, they emphasize that India's structural growth drivers remain intact with steady government capital expenditure, strong domestic consumption, and a recovering rural economy, all contributing to sustained earnings growth for corporates.
In summary, the combined effect of favourable policy measures, attractive valuation levels, and anticipated earnings upgrades provide a constructive environment for Indian equities. Axis Securities' detailed stock picks and Nifty forecast offer investors a roadmap to navigate the evolving market landscape with a focus on quality stocks positioned for growth by March 2026.
Source: Axis Securities report and Business Today
