Fitch Ratings has reaffirmed Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd (ONGC) at BBB with a stable outlook, citing its strategic importance to India’s energy security and strong standalone credit profile. The rating is capped by India’s sovereign rating, given the government’s 59% ownership and direct control over ONGC’s board and leadership.
Key Rating Drivers:
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ONGC’s Standalone Credit Profile remains at bbb+, supported by its scale, vertical integration, and geographic diversification.
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It accounts for 63% of India’s oil and gas production, with a reserve life of 15 years and 5.9 billion barrels of oil equivalent.
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Fitch expects domestic production to grow modestly through FY27, driven by the KGDWN98/2 offshore field and efforts to arrest declines at mature fields.
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EBITDA is projected to remain healthy despite rising operating costs and $700 million in windfall taxes in FY25.
Financial & Operational Outlook:
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Capex is set to rise from ₹519 billion in FY24 to ₹644 billion by FY27, including ₹358 billion for domestic upstream and ₹200–220 billion for subsidiaries.
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Green investments include renewable energy, petrochemicals, green ammonia, and carbon capture, targeting netzero Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 2038.
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EBITDA net leverage may rise to 2.1x by FY27 (from 1.2x in FY24), but remains adequate due to strong cash flows and net cash position.
Strategic Importance:
Fitch assesses ONGC’s role, oversight, and support from the Indian government as “Strong,” with contagion risk deemed significant due to its GRE status.
Sources: Fitch Ratings, Economic Times, CNBC TV18, Outlook Business, Cbonds.