Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra stated that India’s near-term domestic inflation outlook remains positive, supported by healthy food supply prospects and resilient growth. Headline inflation for FY2025-26 is projected at 2.1%, with Q4 at 3.2%, though risks from global energy volatility and geopolitical uncertainties remain.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has reaffirmed confidence in India’s inflation trajectory, with Governor Sanjay Malhotra highlighting a positive near-term domestic inflation outlook. The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) noted that strong food supply conditions, including healthy kharif output, favorable rabi sowing, and sufficient buffer stocks, are expected to keep consumer price index (CPI) inflation within manageable levels.
Headline inflation for FY2025-26 is projected at 2.1%, with Q4 estimates at 3.2%. Core inflation is expected to remain range-bound, barring volatility in precious metals. However, the RBI cautioned that global energy price swings, adverse weather events, and geopolitical tensions could pose upside risks.
Key Highlights:
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Inflation Projection: FY2025-26 headline inflation at 2.1%; Q4 at 3.2%.
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Food Supply Strength: Healthy kharif production, favorable rabi sowing, and adequate grain reserves.
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Core Inflation: Expected to remain stable, with limited volatility.
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Risks Ahead: Energy price fluctuations, geopolitical uncertainty, and weather shocks.
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Policy Stance: Repo rate held at 5.25%, with a neutral outlook to balance growth and stability.
The RBI’s assessment underscores India’s resilience, with a balanced approach to inflation management and growth stability.
Sources: RBI Monetary Policy Statement, Economic Times, Business Standard, The Hindu, BW Businessworld