The Soybean Story: Unpacking India’s Production Woes in 2025

India's soybean production for the 2025-26 season is projected to fall to 9.9 million tonnes, down from last year's 11 million tonnes, reflecting a notable decline shaped by multiple factors impacting crop cultivation across key growing regions.

Key Insights Into The Forecast

The decline in soybean output is largely due to a reduced harvested area, which decreased by around 12 percent as adverse and untimely rainfall disrupted planting schedules, forcing re-sowing in major states like Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra.

Farmers have increasingly shifted towards water-intensive and more lucrative crops such as rice, sugarcane, and corn, driven by abundant rainfall and better market returns, contributing to reduced soybean acreage.

Soybean crushing—the process of extracting oil and producing meal—is expected to decline by approximately 6 percent, influenced by diminished animal feed demand and competitive pressures from imported soybean meal, particularly from Argentina.

Production challenges have led to forecasted drops in soybean meal output and sharply reduced export volumes, while stocks are projected to plummet by over 50 percent, signaling tighter domestic supply conditions.

Implications For India's Soybean Sector

This contraction in soybean output curtails India’s capacity to meet rising domestic demand, especially from the poultry and feed industries, which rely on soybean meal as a key ingredient. Imports of soybean oil are expected to surge as oil mills adjust to lower domestic raw material availability and navigate price competitiveness versus palm oil.

Looking Forward

The evolving dynamics of crop choices and weather unpredictability pose ongoing challenges for India’s soybean sector, calling for innovative agricultural practices and policy support to sustain production resilience in the coming years.

Sources: Foreign Agricultural Service USDA, UkrAgroConsult, BricsGrain Reports, Economic Times Markets