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A recent Reuters poll reveals an optimistic forecast for the Indian housing market with home prices expected to rise by 6.3% in 2025 and further accelerate to 7.0% in 2026. This represents a notable upward revision from the previous June poll estimates of 6.0% and 5.0% respectively. The steady increase in housing prices highlights an evolving real estate landscape marked by strong demand from affluent buyers, ongoing economic growth, and constrained supply that continues to pressure affordability for average buyers.
Key Highlights
- Home price growth forecast has been revised upwards; 6.3% for 2025 and 7.0% for 2026.
- The June 2025 poll predicted lower growth rates of 6.0% in 2025 and 5.0% in 2026, indicating growing market confidence.
- Demand, particularly from wealthy and high-income buyers, is a primary driver.
- Rising home prices contrast with affordability challenges faced by middle- and lower-income segments.
- Rental prices are also expected to surge alongside home prices, further impacting urban residents.
- This robust price growth is despite macroeconomic concerns including inflationary pressures and a slowly cooling economy.
- Property experts remain cautious, underscoring limited housing supply and premiumization trends in new developments.
- Monetary policy shifts, including potential interest rate cuts, will play a role in shaping affordability and demand dynamics.
Drivers Behind the Price Momentum
The upward revision in home price growth expectations stems largely from a sustained demand surge in premium and luxury residential segments. Wealthy buyers, who control a substantial share of India’s wealth, continue to invest aggressively in prime properties, underpinning steady price increases. This trend has been augmented by aspirations for enhanced lifestyles and confidence in India’s long-term economic potential.
Meanwhile, housing supply constraints in major metropolitan areas exacerbate upward pressure on prices. New constructions frequently target the upper-end market, leaving affordable housing options scarce and pushing many toward rental properties. As a result, there is a growing divergence where premium segments thrive while first-time and middle-income homebuyers find affordability increasingly elusive.
Forecasts also point to a simultaneous rise in rental rates, expected to increase by 7.0% to 10.0% in the near term. This shift further impacts urban dwellers, particularly in metro centers like Mumbai, Delhi NCR, Bengaluru, and Pune, where rental demand remains high amid limited ownership opportunities.
Market Outlook and Economic Interactions
Despite concerns related to inflation and interest rates, India’s real estate sector is showing signs of resilience. Experts suggest that potential moves by the Reserve Bank of India to cut interest rates by an estimated 50 basis points over the coming months could ease financing costs for buyers, though affordability pressures will persist.
The ongoing preference for luxury and premium housing developments reflects broader socioeconomic trends, including rising disposable incomes among affluent classes and urban migration patterns favoring enhanced living standards. However, the sector must balance these drivers against the critical need for more inclusive housing solutions to ensure broader market stability.
Property analysts emphasize that while luxury and high-end segments will continue to boost overall price growth in the short term, sustainable expansion of the housing market requires addressing affordability and supply bottlenecks.
Implications for Buyers and Stakeholders
First-time buyers and middle-income groups are likely to face challenges given the rising prices and rental costs. Market experts are divided on whether affordability will improve, with several cautioning that a significant decline in interest rates is needed to meaningfully alleviate the burden on these buyers.
Real estate developers may continue to focus on premium segments where margins are higher, potentially limiting availability of budget housing. Meanwhile, investors and market watchers will closely monitor policy developments, interest rate movements, and economic indicators shaping demand-supply balances.
In summary, the Reuters poll underscores a robust but nuanced outlook for India’s residential real estate market: home prices are set to climb steadily, fueled by wealthy buyers and premium housing demand, while affordability pressures and rental hikes pose ongoing challenges that require strategic interventions from policymakers and market stakeholders.
Sources: Reuters, Knight Frank Research, Colliers International, Housing.com, PropTiger.com, Economic Times, JLL India.
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