Sweet Balance Tips Positive: ISO Projects Global Sugar Surplus in 2025/26

ISO outlook signals a shift to surplus on production recovery and tempered demand  
The ISO’s latest balance sheet indicates global sugar production will outpace consumption in 2025/26, yielding a surplus near 1.63 million metric tons. After consecutive tight seasons, improved weather and higher yields in Brazil’s Centre-South, alongside recoveries in India, Thailand, and Pakistan, underpin the production uptick. Moderating consumption growth further supports a marginally positive balance.

While a surplus of this scale is modest, it suggests a stabilization in the market with potential softening of international prices versus recent highs. Trade flows may rebalance as exporters rebuild stocks and importers face less urgency. Risks remain tied to weather volatility, beet acreage decisions in Europe, and policy moves in India and Thailand that can affect export availability and domestic pricing.

Notable updates  

• ISO projects a global surplus of about 1.63 million metric tons in 2025/26  
• Production recovery led by Brazil, with Asian cane output improving  
• Consumption growth moderates, aiding stock replenishment  
• Prices may see easing, contingent on weather and policy risks  
• Trade flows likely stabilize as exporters rebuild inventories

Sources: International Sugar Organization, Reuters, Zawya