Bucking the Global Gloom: India Shines as the Brightest Star in Morgan Stanley’s Growth Forecast

India will be the fastest-growing big economy in the world, claims the most recent Global Investment Committee (GIC) report of Morgan Stanley. While the world is likely to decelerate economically, the behemoth investor believes that India's real GDP will grow by 5.9% in 2025 and again to 6.4% in 2026, with all the other economies in its universe far behind.

 

Morgan Stanley's report comes on the heels of concerns of a slowdown globally, with global GDP growth projected to decelerate from 3.5% in 2024 to mere 2.5% in 2025. The report attributes the slowdown to potential trade disruptions and policy uncertainties, particularly from the US, which will drag other economies below their respective growth potential. India is, however, projected to remain robust and continue its robust growth trajectory even as other major economies, including China and the US, face headwinds.

 

"India continues to be the fastest growing economy in our universe, with real GDP growth at 5.9 per cent, Q4/Q4 in 2025 and 6.4 per cent in 2026," the GIC said in its outlook.

 

Key Highlights:

 

India GDP growth forecast: 5.9% in 2025, 6.4% in 2026 (Q4-over-Q4 basis).

 

Global GDP growth projection: Weakening from 3.5% in 2024 to 2.5% in 2025, led primarily by trade shocks and uncertainty regarding US policy.

 

US GDP growth: To fall from 2.5% in 2024 to 1.0% in 2025 and 2026.

 

India's resilience: The country is set to continue being the world's fastest-growing large economy despite global recessionary pressures and the unfavorable external environment.

 

Morgan Stanley's optimism: The report reflects strong optimism for India's economic foundations and policy environment in spite of escalating global risks. 

 

Source: Morgan Stanley Global Investment Committee Report, as quoted by Financial Express, Economic Times, NDTV, ABP Live, and Aaj Tak.