Goldman Sachs Warns Of Record Oil Inventory Draws Amid Mideast Output Losses

 The latest Goldman Sachs report highlights unprecedented volatility in global oil markets. With Middle East supply disruptions intensifying, inventories are depleting at record pace, reshaping demand-supply dynamics and fueling uncertainty for producers and consumers worldwide.  

Mideast Output Losses  

Goldman Sachs projects crude output losses of 14.5 million barrels per day across the Middle East. These disruptions are the primary driver behind the sharp inventory draws, creating ripple effects across global energy markets.  

Global Market Deficit  

The oil market has shifted dramatically from a surplus of 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025 to a deficit of 9.6 million barrels per day in Q2 2026. This swing underscores the fragility of supply chains amid geopolitical tensions.  

Demand Outlook  

Despite supply shocks, global oil demand is expected to fall by 1.7 million barrels per day in Q2 and by 0.1 million barrels per day in 2026. Economic slowdowns and efficiency gains are contributing to this decline.  

Key Highlights  

• Middle East crude output losses at 14.5 million bpd  
• Global inventories drawing at record 11–12 million bpd pace  
• Market swings from 2025 surplus to 2026 deficit  
• Oil demand projected to decline in Q2 and 2026  
• Energy security concerns rise amid geopolitical instability  

Sources: Reuters, Goldman Sachs Energy Outlook