ICSG Forecasts a Surplus of 178,000 Tonnes of Refined Copper for 2025 and a Deficit of 150,000 Tonnes for 2026

Global Copper Market: Balancing Act Between Surplus and Deficit

The latest report from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) highlights significant shifts in the global copper market trajectory for 2025 and 2026. While the market currently faces a notable surplus, projections for the coming year point toward a potential deficit, driven by a complex interplay of supply growth, demand dynamics, and geopolitical factors.

Key Highlights & Major Takeaways:

2025 Surplus Projection:

The world is expected to see a copper surplus of about 178,000 tonnes. This is primarily due to increased mining output and expanded smelting capacities, especially in regions like the Democratic Republic of Congo, Brazil, and Mongolia. The surplus is expected to grow from last year's figures, driven by a 2.3% increase in mine output.

2026 Predicted Deficit:

Despite continued growth in primary copper production, a decline in refined copper output—due mainly to constrained concentrate supply—projects a deficit of around 150,000 tonnes. This shortfall could be partially offset by a 6.4% increase in secondary (recycled) copper production supported by expanded recycling infrastructure globally.

Production Outlook:

Mine production is forecasted to increase by 2.3% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026, supported by new mine startups such as Malmyz in Russia and expansions in Africa and South America.

Refined copper production is expected to grow by 2.9% in 2025 but slow down to 1.5% in 2026 due to concentrate shortages, which crucially impact primary refining.

Demand Trends:

Worldwide refined copper use is expected to rise by 2.4% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026.

China remains a major driver, with modest growth anticipated, but demand in Europe, Japan, and the US is expected to remain subdued amid geopolitical tensions.

Growth support comes from energy transition projects and digital infrastructure development, particularly in Asia.

Market Implications:

The anticipated surplus in 2025 could quickly diminish due to potential supply chain disruptions or unexpected trade policies. Conversely, the expected deficit in 2026 signals a tightening market that could push prices higher amidst limited concentrate availability.

The overall outlook underscores the delicate balance in the global copper industry, with supply surpluses giving way to potential shortages, emphasizing the importance of strategic resource management and technological innovation in the coming years.

Sources: ICSG, Reuters, Financial Times, MarketWatch, and official ICSG reports