India’s October WPI Inflation Turns Negative, Food and Fuel Prices Lead Slide

According to official data released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India’s WPI inflation for October 2025 came in at -1.21% year-on-year, marking a decisive move into negative territory versus a moderate uptick of 0.13% in September and a revised August increase of 0.52%. The downturn was led by a steep drop in wholesale prices for core food items, with the Food Index clocking -5.04% and energy costs, as the Fuel Price Index landed at -2.55%.​

Manufacturing inflation, a key input for downstream pricing, remained positive at 1.54%, supported by select segments like textiles, food products, and electronics, balancing declines in chemicals, basic metals, and motor vehicles. The divergence between food and manufacturing further emphasizes supply chain resilience alongside sectoral weakness.

October’s figures show inflation far below the Reuters poll forecast of -0.60%, underscoring subdued wholesale price growth amid GST reforms and global demand uncertainty. The persistent decline in food prices and mineral oils amplifies concerns over rural income and farm sector profitability, prompting analysts to watch for policy adjustments to spur demand and price stability.

Key Highlights:

India’s Oct WPI inflation turns negative at -1.21%, sharply down from Sep’s 0.13%.

Food Index (-5.04% y/y) and Fuel Price Index (-2.55% y/y) drive the decline in overall WPI.

Aug WPI inflation revised up to 0.52% y/y; manufacturing inflation stands at 1.54% y/y.

Decline exceeds Reuters poll of -0.60%, reflecting deep sectoral softness.

Positive momentum persists in select manufacturing verticals.

Analysts expect policy focus on stimulating demand and farm sector recovery as deflationary pressures persist.

Sources: Reuters, Ministry of Commerce & Industry, Business Standard