Monsoon 2025: Skymet Predicts a Rainy Boost for India's Agriculture

India will see a "normal" monsoon this year with rainfall expected at 103% of the Long Period Average (LPA), private weather forecaster Skymet said. The forecast for the crucial June-September period has a margin of error of ±5% and brings hopes of a strong agricultural season and economic stability.

Skymet's Managing Director Jatin Singh pointed to favorable weather conditions, such as the absence of El Niño and the presence of ENSO-neutral patterns. Moreover, a likely positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is set to improve rain prospects, especially in the second half of the season. Previously, this combination has yielded robust monsoons, and 2025 seems no different.

Regionally, western and southern India are likely to have bountiful rains, with surplus rainfall along the Western Ghats in Kerala, coastal Karnataka, and Goa. Central India's rain-dependent areas in Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh will also get sufficient rainfall. Northeastern and hilly northern parts could experience below normal rainfall.

With a 40% chance of normal rains and just a 5% likelihood of drought, Skymet's forecast offers hope to farmers and policymakers both. The monsoon's consistent recovery during the second half could further support agricultural production.

Source: Skymet Weather