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Earnings Over Echoes: Julius Baer’s Nitin Raheja Says Fundamentals Will Drive Indian Markets

Updated: July 14, 2025 11:26

Image Source: The Economic Times
Despite global chatter around Trump’s tariff policies, Julius Baer’s Nitin Raheja believes India’s equity markets will be steered more by earnings performance than geopolitical noise. In a recent interview, Raheja emphasized that investors should focus on corporate results and domestic consumption trends as the real catalysts for market movement.
 
Key Highlights
  • Earnings growth remains the primary trigger for Indian equities in FY26
  • Tariff risks are underpriced but unlikely to derail market sentiment
  • Festival season consumption revival expected to boost demand and investor confidence
Sectoral Outlook
  • Cement and rural consumption sectors are poised to surprise positively in Q1 and FY26
  • IT and twowheeler segments face earnings downgrade risks due to weak demand and margin pressures
  • Upward revisions to fullyear earnings estimates (12–13%) remain unlikely in the near term
Macro Signals
  • RBI’s frontloaded rate cuts and increased liquidity may support earnings with a lag
  • Budgetled tax threshold hikes could stimulate spending and improve corporate toplines
  • Dedollarization, if sustained, may benefit India through lower import costs and inflation control
Investor Sentiment
  • Markets have grown desensitized to tariff threats, coining the term TACO—Trump Always Chickens Out
  • Focus is shifting to bottomup stock selection and valuation discipline
  • Longterm investors are advised to monitor earnings quality over headline risks
Raheja’s view underscores a broader market consensus: India’s resilience lies in its domestic growth story, not in reacting to external tremors.
 
Sources: Moneycontrol, NDTV Profit, Economic Times, Julius Baer Insights, ETMarkets Smart Talk

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