El Nino Looms Over India’s Monsoon Outlook For 2026

Weather Forecast And Risks  
The IMD has indicated a probability of El Nino emerging after July, though confirmation will only be possible in April. El Nino, caused by warming of the central Pacific Ocean, is historically linked to weaker monsoon rainfall in India. Private forecaster Skymet has also warned of suppressed rainfall and drought risks if the phenomenon strengthens mid-season.  

Impact On Agriculture And Economy  
A sub-par monsoon could affect crop yields, particularly in rain-fed regions, impacting staples like rice, pulses, and oilseeds. Reduced rainfall may also strain water reservoirs, affecting drinking water supply and hydropower generation. Economists caution that food inflation could rise if agricultural output suffers.  

Global Climate Context  
The breakdown of La Nina and the shift toward El Nino is expected to influence weather patterns worldwide, with India among the most vulnerable due to its dependence on monsoon rains.  

Key Highlights  

• IMD signals probability of El Nino after July  
• Clarity on monsoon impact expected by April  
• Skymet warns of suppressed rainfall and drought risks  
• Agriculture and food inflation could be affected  
• Global climate shift from La Nina to El Nino underway  

Conclusion  
With El Nino on the horizon, India faces heightened uncertainty over its monsoon outlook. Policymakers, farmers, and businesses will closely monitor updates in the coming months, as rainfall patterns remain critical to the nation’s economy and food security.  

Sources: The Hindu, Business Standard, Skymet Weather