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Emerging Market Currencies Under Pressure: Reuters Poll Indicates Widespread Weakness to Come


Updated: May 06, 2025 16:50

Image Source: MoneyControl
A Reuters poll conducted recently shows that the majority of emerging market currencies are predicted to decline against the U.S. dollar within the next three months, as investors are unnerved by escalating global trade tensions and changing economic policies.
 
Main Points:
  • Most foreign exchange strategists polled expect emerging market currencies to lose against the dollar in the short term, citing the effects of increased U.S. tariffs and ongoing economic uncertainty.
  • Big banks such as JPMorgan have revised their views on emerging market currencies to "underweight," pointing out that recent U.S. tariff increases have been worse than worst-case scenarios and are set to fuel capital outflows and rising risk premiums for emerging economies.
  • Analysts add that Asian and European emerging markets are most exposed, with their currencies likely to further weaken, while Latin American and frontier markets might do somewhat better.
  • The Indian rupee, for instance, is estimated to fall more than 1% to 87.88 per dollar in three months, with ongoing strain from trade war concerns, moderating domestic growth, and declining foreign investment.
  • Although the U.S. dollar has experienced some recent losses, safe-haven demand and the absence of compelling alternatives still underpin its strength, despite increasing worries about long-term fiscal health and Federal Reserve policy.
There are a few exceptions: currencies such as the Indian rupee might experience some stabilization through central bank intervention, but most emerging market currencies will likely continue to be under pressure for the remainder of the year.
 
Sources: Reuters, FocusEconomics

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