Fitch Ratings has lowered China's long-term foreign-currency IDR to 'A' from 'A+', citing worries over the deteriorating public finances and fast-growing public debt of the country. In spite of the downgrade, Fitch still has a stable outlook for China, which means that no further adverse changes are imminent.
Key Points:
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Rating Downgrade: The downgrade indicates Fitch's expectation of ongoing fiscal difficulties and increasing debt path in China.
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Economic Projections: Fitch expects China's GDP to expand by 4.4% in 2025, lower than 5.0% in 2024. The general government deficit will increase to 8.4% of GDP in 2025, higher than 6.5% in 2024.
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Tariff Effect: The recent imposition of tariffs, especially by the U.S., is likely to worsen China's economic woes and lead to a wider global slowdown.
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Global Trade War: The current trade tensions have fueled recession and inflationary fears, and China has already seen major export declines as a result of the tariffs.
The news reflects China's fiscal predicament, under which policymakers need to balance the support for near-term growth against the need for long-term fiscal consolidation. The stable outlook is that although problems are large, Fitch does not see any further downgrades in the immediate future.
Sources: StreetInsider, ING, TradingView