Global Economy Walks A Tightrope: Stability Meets Uncertainty |

Updated: January 28, 2026 22:17

Image Source: Toppers Notes

In a Reuters poll, economists project global growth at 3.0% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027, following 3.2% in 2025. While forecasts remain steady, 116 of 220 economists warn that geopolitical shocks pose the biggest downside risk, overshadowing trade and policy uncertainties.

Global Economic Outlook For 2026 And 2027:

The latest Reuters poll of 220 economists highlights a cautiously steady global growth trajectory. The consensus points to 3.0% growth in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027, after a 3.2% expansion in 2025. These figures are broadly unchanged from the October poll, which had projected 2.99%, 3.0%, and 3.0% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively.

Key Highlights:

116 of 220 economists identified geopolitical shocks as the most significant downside risk to global growth in 2026.
Despite trade tensions and policy uncertainty, growth expectations remain resilient, reflecting confidence in underlying fundamentals.
The outlook suggests that while the global economy is adapting to shifting trade dynamics and policy changes, external shocks could derail momentum.
Economists remain unfazed by recent shifts in U.S. trade policies and alliances, indicating that structural resilience continues to support growth forecasts.
The projected growth rates align with earlier expectations, underscoring stability in forecasts despite heightened global volatility.

Risks And Resilience

The poll underscores that geopolitical instability—ranging from conflicts to abrupt policy shifts—remains the most pressing concern for economists. While trade disputes and monetary policy adjustments are notable, they are seen as secondary risks compared to the potential fallout from geopolitical shocks. The resilience of the global economy, however, is evident in the consistency of growth projections, suggesting that markets and policymakers have adapted to uncertainty.

Looking Ahead

The forecasted growth rates of 3.0% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027 indicate a modest but steady expansion. Economists emphasize that vigilance is required, as external shocks could quickly alter the trajectory. The balance between resilience and risk will define the global economic narrative in the coming years.

Sources Reuters

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