The global sugar market outlook for the 2025/26 season signals interesting shifts with contrasting movements in prices and production volumes. ICE white sugar futures are projected to face a small decline by the end of 2025, while raw sugar futures are expected to rise moderately. Meanwhile, major sugar producers India and Brazil anticipate substantial increases in their production, contributing to a projected global surplus after a recent deficit. This comprehensive update explores these developing trends, offering key insights into the sugar industry’s evolving dynamics.
Key Forecasts And Price Movements In The Sugar Futures Market
ICE white sugar futures are expected to close 2025 at approximately $480 per ton, marking a slight decrease of 0.5 percent from the previous Thursday’s closing price.
Contrasting this, ICE raw sugar futures are forecast to end the year at 17.0 cents per pound, reflecting an increase of 5 percent compared to the same Thursday close.
The divergent outlook for white and raw sugar prices underscores varying demand-supply factors influencing refined and raw sugar markets respectively.
Market analysts attribute the raw sugar price increase to tightening conditions in processed sugar inventories and regional supply uncertainties.
India’s Sugar Production Set For A Robust Uptick
India’s sugar output is forecasted to rise significantly to 32.0 million tons in the 2025/26 season, compared to 26.2 million tons recorded in 2024/25.
This surge is largely driven by favorable growing conditions, expanded acreage, and improved agricultural practices across major producing states.
The increase reinforces India’s role as one of the world’s leading sugar producers, impacting both domestic supply chains and export potentials.
With higher production, India may be better positioned to meet growing internal demand and capitalize on export opportunities.
Brazil’s Sugar Harvest Shows Slight Contraction But Remains Strong
Brazil’s sugar production in the Center-South (CS) region, the main producing area, is forecast at 397 million tons for the 2025/26 season, a slight decrease from 402 million tons in 2024/25.
Despite the marginal decline, Brazil continues to command a dominant share in global sugar supply, especially for raw sugar exports.
Factors influencing this slight dip include weather variability and crop cycle effects but Brazil’s output remains robust and competitive.
The country’s output trends critically influence global sugar prices and trade flows, given its export market share.
Global Sugar Supply Dynamics Shift To Surplus
The international sugar market is projected to swing from a deficit of 3.0 million metric tons in 2024/25 to a surplus of 3.0 million metric tons in 2025/26.
This shift is primarily driven by the combined increased production from major players like India and resilient supplies from Brazil, offsetting previous supply shortages.
Market participants anticipate that the surplus may exert downward pressure on refined sugar prices, especially white sugar futures.
However, balanced regional demand, currency fluctuations, and trade policies could moderate price impacts.
Implications For Industry Stakeholders And Market Watchers
Sugar producers and traders should prepare for a potentially more competitive market environment with abundant supply influencing pricing.
End-users and food manufacturers may find opportunities for more stable and possibly lower pricing for refined sugar supplies.
Policy makers in sugar-producing countries may need to monitor inventory management and export strategies to optimize benefits.
Investors in commodities markets could consider the contrasting futures trends for white and raw sugar as indicators for trading strategies.
Summary Of The 2025/26 Sugar Market Outlook
The 2025/26 sugar season presents a nuanced picture: while ICE white sugar futures see a minor expected decline, raw sugar prices are on an upward trajectory. India's rising production and Brazil’s steady output contribute to transitioning the market from recent shortages to a predicted global supply surplus. These developments highlight a dynamic global sugar landscape where production volumes, price trends, and supply-demand factors will require close observation by all stakeholders.
Sources: ICE Futures data, Indian Sugar Mills Association reports, Brazilian Sugar and Ethanol Industry Association (UNICA) updates, Global sugar market analyses
