Gold’s ₹1.05 Lakh Moment—Will You Regret Not Buying or Not Selling?

Image Source: The Economic Times

Gold prices in India have surged past ₹1,05,000 per 10 grams in July 2025, marking a historic milestone amid global economic uncertainty. The rally, which delivered over 26% yeartodate returns, has sparked a critical question for investors—should you buy, hold, or sell?

Key highlights:

The surge is driven by a weakening US dollar, geopolitical tensions, and expectations of rate cuts in the US and EU
Gold averaged $3,067/oz in H1 and ended June at $3,287/oz, with 26 new alltime highs recorded globally
In India, the INR’s depreciation and strong ETF inflows have amplified gains, despite a drop in jewellery demand
Central banks continue to accumulate gold, reinforcing its safehaven status
H2 Outlook: Scenarios and Strategy

Base Case:

Fed cuts rates by 50 bps, US GDP slows
Gold may rise 5% more
Strategy: Hold positions, avoid aggressive buying

Bull Case:

Stagflation or recession hits
Gold could gain 10–15% more
Strategy: Add via SGBs or ETFs

Bear Case:

Geopolitical tensions ease, risk appetite returns
Gold may correct 12–17%
Strategy: Book partial profits, rebalance into equities

Investor Takeaway

If already invested, stay put unless gold exceeds 40% of your portfolio. New entrants should tread cautiously—start small via SIPs or ETFs and avoid overexposure. Gold remains a tactical hedge, not a primary growth asset.

Sources: Business Standard, Economic Times, Business Today, World Gold Council.