India Rebounds on Russian Crude: November Imports Hit 5-Month Peak Despite Sanctions Loom

Updated: December 03, 2025 16:00

India's Russian oil imports averaged 1.8 million bpd in November 2025—a five-month high and 35-36.6% of total crude—after refiners front-loaded shipments before US sanctions hit on November 21. December flows dipped to 1.0-1.27 million bpd, with further easing expected amid diversification to Middle East, US, and Africa.

India's crude oil purchases from Russia rebounded sharply in November 2025, reaching 1.8-1.9 million barrels per day (bpd) on average despite early-month hesitancy over impending US sanctions. This marked the highest volume since June, comprising 35-36.6% of the nation's total imports, up from October's 1.5-1.6 million bpd and 33.5% share. Refiners strategically accelerated loadings to 1.9-2.0 million bpd pre-deadline, stockpiling Urals-grade crude (over 77% of volumes) for post-sanction processing, while Russia-Middle East sources held over 80% dominance.

The surge defied forecasts of decline, driven by deep discounts and adaptive logistics like ship-to-ship transfers. However, flows slowed post-November 21 to 1.27 million bpd, with December arrivals projected at 1.0 million bpd—potentially dipping to 800,000 bpd short-term—before stabilizing via non-sanctioned routes and suppliers like Nayara Energy.

Import Volume Surge

Averaged 1.83 million bpd from Russia, a 13-17% month-on-month rise; Urals grade up 13.5% to lead shipments.
Pre-sanction rush lifted share to 36.6%, highest since summer's 44.4% peak.

Sanction Impacts and Adaptations

US measures targeted Rosneft/Lukoil, cutting post-deadline volumes by a third; EU rules from January 2026 add pressure on refineries.
Tactics include shadow fleet, diversions, and indirect channels to sustain discounted flows without broad secondary sanctions.

Diversification Trends

US hit record 8.75% share (442,000 bpd, down 22% from September peak); Africa reached 9.9% (500,000 bpd from Nigeria, Angola etc.).
Refiners eye Brazil, Latin America to offset Russia dip amid Putin-Modi talks on energy ties.

This resilience highlights India's energy security strategy amid geopolitical shifts, with Kremlin viewing the dip as temporary.

Sources: Reuters, Economic Times, Hindu BusinessLine, NDTV, Kpler via Financial Express, CNBC

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