India's equity analysts have become global leaders in the longshort style of investment with a return of an astonishing 105% in the past decade—twice the 14% return of the same strategy on the S&P 500. The achievement is a reflection of the particular inefficiencies and possibilities of India's $5.4 trillion stock market.
Key points of the model:
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The strategy is to buy the highest rated 20% of stocks rated by analysts and short sell the worst 20% of India's best 200 companies.
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Bloomberg data show that this marketneutral strategy has beaten global benchmarks each year.
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A simple buyandhold of the top quintile of stocks by analysts' target prices would have averaged 479% over 10 years.
Why India is special:
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The market is less saturated with institutional arbitrage, and mispricings persist longer.
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There is no short selling, and margin trading is less prevalent, reducing volatility and permitting more accurate predictions.
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Wholesale investing has increased, and corporate reporting has enhanced, enhancing analyst performance.
Structural setting:
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India's derivatives turnover is 300 times that of cash equities, whereas it is 4x in the US.
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Absence of aggressive hedge fund activity allows analysts' recommendations to retain forecasting value longer.
International recognition
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India's analyticaldriven strategies surpass most of the emerging markets, as per research conducted by RPTU University KaiserslauternLandau.
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Analysts warn that with quant investing, as it matures and regulation changes, these returns will be normalized.
India's equity universe remains fertile territory for alpha generation—particularly for those with eyes open regarding where to look.
Sources: The Hindu BusinessLine, Bloomberg, RPTU University KaiserslauternLandau.