India’s National Statistical Office has projected real GDP growth of 7.4% for FY2025-26 in its First Advance Estimates, higher than last year’s 6.5%. The figures will form the base for Budget calculations and may be revised as wider data becomes available, reflecting resilient domestic demand amid global uncertainties.
India’s First Advance Estimates put FY26 real GDP growth at 7.4%, signaling robust momentum across services and manufacturing and a stronger expansion than the previous year. These estimates act as the earliest official read on annual growth and are subject to revision as more comprehensive data is incorporated.
The NSO’s advance numbers serve as a foundation for the Union Budget’s fiscal math, informing spending plans, deficit targets, and debt ratios ahead of the February 1 Budget. Analysts note resilience despite external headwinds, with cooling inflation providing policy room to support domestic activity.
Key highlights
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Headline growth: FY26 real GDP projected at 7.4%, above last year’s 6.5% expansion.
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Data status: First Advance Estimates; revisions expected through the year as coverage improves.
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Budget base: Estimates will underpin FY27 Budget calculations (deficit, spending, debt).
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Sector pulse: Six-quarter highs in services and manufacturing momentum supported recent growth prints.
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Macro context: Despite trade uncertainties, cooling inflation aids a supportive policy backdrop.
Sources: U.S. News/Reuters; Business Standard; The Indian Express; News18; CNBC