The Malaysian Palm Oil Council forecasts crude palm oil prices to rebound to 4,500 ringgit per ton by year-end, driven by festive demand and slower output. Seasonal factors and labor shortages are tightening supply, with global importers like India and China expected to feel the impact of rising costs.
The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) has projected that crude palm oil (CPO) prices will rebound to around 4,500 ringgit per ton by year-end 2025, driven by strong festive season demand and a slowdown in output. This forecast comes as global edible oil markets remain volatile amid supply constraints and shifting consumption trends.
Key highlights from the announcement:
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CPO prices are expected to rise from current levels, supported by higher consumption during year-end festivals across Asia and the Middle East.
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The output slowdown in Malaysia, the world’s second-largest palm oil producer, is attributed to seasonal factors and labor shortages, tightening supply.
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Analysts note that palm oil’s rebound could influence global vegetable oil prices, particularly in India and China, which are major importers.
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The MPOC emphasized that the price recovery will also depend on weather conditions and export demand, with festive consumption acting as a key catalyst.
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Industry stakeholders see this as a positive sign for producers, though consumers may face higher cooking oil costs in the near term.
This development underscores palm oil’s critical role in global food supply chains and highlights how seasonal demand can reshape commodity markets.
Sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, Malaysian Palm Oil Council