Monsoon in Balance: Pacific Neutral Phase Brings Hope and Complexity

India’s monsoon season is set to benefit from the Pacific Ocean entering a neutral phase, marking the end of La Niña conditions. This development reduces the likelihood of droughts or excessive rainfall, offering a promising outlook for the June-September period. However, experts caution that forecasting under neutral conditions can be challenging, as predictable patterns are less defined.  

The Indian Ocean is also expected to remain neutral until August, adding another layer of complexity to monsoon predictions. While neutral conditions generally favor balanced rainfall, forecasters must closely monitor other factors, such as Atlantic Ocean dynamics and internal atmospheric shifts, to ensure accurate predictions.  

Private forecaster Skymet Weather has projected monsoon rainfall at 103% of the long-period average, indicating a normal season. This is good news for India’s agrarian economy, which relies heavily on monsoon rains for kharif sowing and reservoir replenishment.  

Sources: Economic Times, Times of India, Indian Express.