As of early September 2025, prominent metal and real estate stocks including Nalco and DLF surged up to 5%, driven primarily by growing optimism over a prospective Federal Reserve interest rate cut. The rally reflects a confluence of factors that have collectively enhanced investor sentiment, propelling key sectors and boosting Indian markets. This upward momentum provides important cues for market watchers and investors regarding current trends in metals, real estate, and the broader economy.
Fed Rate Cut Optimism
Market participants are increasingly pricing in a 25 basis points cut in the federal funds rate by the U.S. Federal Reserve during the September policy meeting. This expectation follows Chair Jerome Powell's recent remarks cautioning about downside risks in the U.S. job market and inflation pressures that might prompt a rate cut to sustain economic growth. Historical data suggest that the S&P 500 and other equity indices generally rally in the year following such Fed easing after a sustained pause. This Fed action anticipation fuels positive flows into global risk assets, including Indian equities.
Strong Metal Sector Performance
The metal sector, led by state-owned Nalco (National Aluminium Company Ltd), reported gains of around 3% and higher in early September trading. Nalco’s Q4 2025 financials highlighted a doubling of net profits supported by firm aluminium prices, operational efficiencies, and ongoing capacity expansion plans worth ₹30,000 crore over five years. The metal rally also saw other heavyweights like Hindalco, Vedanta, Jindal Stainless, and NMDC advance between 1-5%, reflecting bullishness across metals driven by robust industrial demand and export markets.
Real Estate Stocks Gain Momentum
Real estate companies such as DLF and Sobha also participated in the rally, gaining nearly 1-5% as borrowing costs outlook improved. Following recent rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India, which lowered repo rates to 5.5%, realty stocks gained from expectations of cheaper home loans, better affordability, and renewed activity in affordable and mid-income housing segments. The Nifty Realty index accordingly posted solid gains, supported by broad-based buying across key developers including Godrej Properties, Brigade Enterprises, and Macrotech Developers.
Positive Macroeconomic Indicators
India’s economic fundamentals further bolstered investor confidence. August Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data showed the fastest manufacturing growth in nearly five years, evidencing robust production expansion and healthier supply-demand alignment. Additionally, India’s GDP growth for Q1 FY26 clocked in at an impressive 7.8%, well above expectations. Together with improving corporate earnings, these domestic indicators underpin the sustained rally in metal and real estate sectors.
Additional Catalysts Behind the Rally
Strong industrial demand for metals like aluminium and steel globally supports capacity expansions and pricing power.
Government infrastructure spending and urbanization trends continue to drive demand for real estate and construction materials.
Positive export outlook with global commodity demand remaining firm amid supply constraints.
Potential RBI follow-through on easing measures aligned with Fed’s anticipated rate cut, fostering liquidity in markets.
In summary, the recent sharp rally in Nalco, DLF, and other metal and real estate stocks underscores the synergy between global monetary policy shifts and strong domestic economic momentum. Investors are actively repositioning portfolios to capitalize on expected easing, industrial growth, and realty sector revival. While uncertainties remain, the current environment favors cyclical sectors poised to benefit from sustained demand and improved financing conditions.
Sources: Moneycontrol, News18, Economic Times, ICICI Direct, U.S. Bank, Angel One, StockGro, Morningstar
