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After a mixed session on August 12, where the Nifty 50 closed 97 points lower at 24,487 and the Sensex shed 368 points to end at 80,236, Indian equity markets are poised for a cautious yet optimistic trade on August 13. Global cues from Wall Street's strong rally the previous day, fueled by easing inflation concerns and hopes of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, set a positive tone for the Indian markets at open.
Key Highlights from Recent Market Activity and Global Influence:
The US benchmarks surged on August 12 with the S&P 500 up 1.13%, Nasdaq advancing 1.39%, and Dow Jones gaining 1.10%. This rally was driven by inflation data broadly in line with expectations, reinforcing bets on a Fed rate cut in September.
On Wall Street, technology and growth stocks led the gains, boosting global risk appetite and investor confidence.
Asian markets mostly followed suit, with Japan's Nikkei up 1.3%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng rising 1%, and South Korea's KOSPI edging 0.2% higher.
Indian futures markets indicate a positive open, with the GIFT Nifty trading around 24,616 points, up approximately 0.46% in early pre-market trade.
The Indian rupee showed stability, marginally strengthening against the US dollar, supportive of foreign investor sentiment.
Technical and Market Sentiment Overview for Indian Indices:
The Nifty 50 remains range-bound between 24,300 and 24,700, with immediate resistance seen near 24,700 and a crucial hurdle close to 24,850, which coincides with its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA).
Key support lies around 24,300; a break below this level could invite strong selling pressure.
Momentum indicators for Nifty show weakness with RSI below 40, MACD negative, and bearish candlestick patterns on daily charts, suggesting short-term consolidation.
The Sensex mirrored Nifty’s pattern, facing selling pressure, particularly in sectors like realty, FMCG, and banking, with mixed trends in auto, pharma, metals, and IT.
Volatility remains elevated as measured by India VIX, but a slight easing was noted, aligning with a cautious market mood.
Sectoral and Stock-specific Insights:
Realty, FMCG, and banking stocks have been under pressure, contributing to index losses.
Auto, pharma, metal, oil & gas, IT, and media sectors have shown resilience with modest gains, offering pockets of upward momentum.
Important Q1 earnings reports are guiding investor sentiment as companies across sectors reveal results.
Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) have been net buyers while foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) remained net sellers, indicating divergent market participation.
What to Expect for August 13 Trade:
A cautious positive start is expected, supported by healthy global cues and the release of key domestic inflation data showing retail inflation at its lowest in eight years.
The Nifty and Sensex may attempt to reclaim key moving average levels but face resistance near 24,700–24,850 zones.
Range-bound trading with potential volatility is likely as markets digest mixed global and local signals amid ongoing US-India trade tensions and tariff uncertainties.
Investors are advised to watch for breakouts beyond resistance for confirmation of upward momentum or breakdowns below support indicating renewed weakness.
Stock selection, particularly in sectors showing strength, and a focus on quarterly earnings results will be critical for trading opportunities.
Broader Market Themes:
The inflation data calming market fears of aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve is boosting risk appetite globally.
Indian markets remain sensitive to geopolitical developments, trade discussions between India and the US, and domestic macroeconomic indicators.
Sustained foreign fund inflows and strong retail participation could catalyze further gains.
However, caution persists due to global economic uncertainties and potential market corrections after recent rallies.
In summary, the Indian stock market on August 13 is set for a tentative but potentially constructive session driven by optimism from Wall Street’s strong rally and easing inflation concerns globally. Traders should anticipate a closely contested range-bound market with volatility and look for definitive moves above key resistance or below support for clearer directional cues.
Source: Moneycontrol, Economic Times, Business Standard, NDTV, 5Paisa, Angel One, Reuters
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