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India’s economic outlook remains positive and resilient, with multiple high-frequency indicators confirming that the overall momentum in the economy has not slowed down. Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) V. Anantha Nageswaran emphasized that comprehensive actions taken on both fiscal and monetary fronts are continuously supporting demand and sustaining growth trajectories. This recent assessment reassures confidence in India’s growth story amid global uncertainties.
Key Highlights of India’s Economic Momentum:
Sustained Economic Growth: India recorded a real GDP growth of 7.4% in the fourth quarter of the financial year 2024-25, with a full-year growth rate of 6.5%. The CEA highlighted that this strong fourth quarter momentum has carried forward into the first quarter of the new fiscal year, signaling stable and steady economic activity.
Robust Domestic Demand: Private consumption has risen to its highest share of GDP since 2004, driven by strong rural demand, urban income tax relief, and improving employment conditions. Gross fixed capital formation remains steady at around 30% of GDP, indicating continued private investment.
Fiscal and Monetary Support: The government and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) have implemented calibrated measures to sustain demand—these include tax reliefs to enhance disposable incomes and monetary policy easing through repo rate reductions. These efforts collectively sustain favorable conditions for growth with manageable inflation levels.
Multiple Indicators Show No Slowdown: High-frequency data covering industrial output, infrastructure activity, services exports, and steady foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows underpin the assessment that the economy is not decelerating. The agricultural sector also surprised positively with notable output growth, bolstering rural purchasing power.
Investment Climate Remains Healthy: Capital goods imports and infrastructure output demonstrate a continued focus on building productive capacity. While private capex growth is cautious, capacity utilization remains high, suggesting scope for future investment acceleration.
Inflation and External Sector: Retail inflation has eased to a multi-year low, supporting a benign growth-inflation environment. Services exports and merchandise trade remain resilient despite global trade tensions and geopolitical risks, helping contain the current account deficit.
Fiscal and Monetary Actions Explained:
Fiscal Policy: The Union Budget 2025-26 provided income tax relief aimed at supporting consumption. Government capital expenditure on infrastructure has increased significantly, enhancing economic multiplier effects.
Monetary Policy: The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee maintains supportive stances with repo rate cuts implemented to encourage lending and investment. Liquidity conditions remain adequate.
Outlook and Forward Guidance:
India’s GDP growth forecast for FY26 is maintained between 6.3% and 6.8%, with upside potential if urban consumption gains further traction through enhanced capital formation and hiring.
The external economic environment remains challenging, with risks including geopolitical tensions and global monetary policy divergences; however, India’s growth base remains comparatively resilient globally.
The CEA urged continued efforts to boost FDI inflows and integrate further into global value chains, including capitalizing on the ‘China plus one’ strategy.
Conclusion:
India’s Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran’s statements underscore a strong and persistent growth momentum supported by robust domestic demand and prudent fiscal and monetary actions. Multiple economic indicators corroborate that the economy is not slowing down despite global headwinds. The combined effect of supportive policies, infrastructural investment, and resilient consumption creates a positive growth environment with manageable inflation risks. India is positioned to maintain its status as the fastest-growing major economy in the near term.
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Nomura Investor Forum Asia 2025, PIB Press Releases, Deloitte India Economic Outlook August 2025, Moneycontrol
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