The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) projects 2026 palm oil stocks to fall to 2 million tonnes from 3.05 million in 2025. Crude palm oil (CPO) prices are expected between 4,000–4,300 ringgit per tonne, exports to rise to 15.8–16 million tonnes, while production dips slightly to 19.5–19.8 million tonnes.
Malaysia’s palm oil industry is set for a transformative 2026, with the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) unveiling projections that highlight tighter supply, resilient pricing, and robust export demand.
Key Highlights
-
Shrinking stockpiles: Palm oil inventories are forecast to decline to 2 million tonnes in 2026, down from 3.05 million tonnes in 2025, signaling leaner supply conditions.
-
Price resilience: Crude palm oil (CPO) prices are expected to remain firm, ranging between 4,000–4,300 ringgit per tonne, reflecting market stability despite lower production.
-
Export expansion: Malaysia’s palm oil exports are projected to grow to 15.8–16 million tonnes in 2026, compared to 15.26 million tonnes in 2025, underscoring strong global demand.
-
Production moderation: Output is anticipated to ease slightly to 19.5–19.8 million tonnes in 2026, versus 20.28 million tonnes in 2025, reflecting challenges in yield and sustainability.
Market Implications
The dip in production and stocks could tighten supply, supporting prices in the global edible oil market. Export growth reinforces Malaysia’s role as a leading supplier, particularly to Asia and the Middle East. Analysts suggest that while refiners may face margin pressures, upstream producers could benefit from firmer price levels.
Industry Outlook
With sustainability and demand dynamics shaping the sector, Malaysia’s palm oil industry is expected to balance reduced production with stronger exports. The forecast points to a cautiously optimistic year, where supply constraints may be offset by resilient demand and stable pricing.
Sources: Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB)