Reliance Retreats: Ambani's Empire Faces Crude Reality Check Ahead Of Earnings

Reliance Industries, led by Mukesh Ambani, started 2026 with sharp share price pressure, dropping more than 6% and erasing about $15 billion in market capitalization. This marks one of the toughest year openings recently, dragging down key indices as investors await Q3 FY26 earnings scheduled for release after market on January 16. The selloff stems from dual worries: heightened US regulatory focus on India's Russian oil purchases, where RIL has benefited from discounted crude, and forecasts of decelerating retail sales growth to around 10% YoY due to high base effects and softer festive demand.

 

Despite the dip, analysts expect balanced Q3 performance with consolidated net profit up 5-6% to Rs 19,412 crore and revenue rising 9% to Rs 2.6 lakh crore. O2C EBITDA could surge 15% on improved refining margins of $13.4 per barrel, aided by rupee weakness, while retail EBITDA grows modestly at 6%. Jio's digital push remains a bright spot.

 

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Sources: The Economic Times, The Hindu BusinessLine, Moneycontrol