The Indian rupee continued its downward trajectory, breaching the 87.90 mark against the US dollar and settling at 87.92 on Friday, August 29, 2025. This marks its weakest level in over six months, driven by a confluence of external pressures and domestic vulnerabilities. The depreciation reflects mounting concerns over US trade policy, foreign portfolio outflows, and month-end dollar demand, despite Reserve Bank of India’s ongoing efforts to stabilize the currency.
Key Highlights
-
Rupee falls to 87.92 per US dollar, lowest since February 2025
-
Depreciation of 18 paise in early trade, extending a five-session losing streak
-
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) offloaded ₹34,733 crore worth of equities in August
-
US tariffs on Indian goods intensify trade deficit concerns
-
RBI intervention and government support measures underway to cushion exporters
Drivers Behind the Decline
US Tariff Shockwaves The rupee’s weakness is largely attributed to the recent announcement by the US Department of Homeland Security, outlining a 50 percent tariff on Indian goods effective August 27, 2025. This move has triggered fears of a widening trade deficit and reduced export competitiveness, putting pressure on the rupee.
Foreign Fund Outflows FPIs have been net sellers of Indian equities throughout August, with cumulative outflows crossing ₹34,000 crore. This capital flight has intensified demand for dollars, weakening the rupee further.
Month-End Dollar Demand Corporates and importers typically ramp up dollar purchases toward the end of the month to meet payment obligations, adding to the rupee’s short-term volatility.
RBI’s Balancing Act The Reserve Bank of India has been actively selling dollars to curb excessive depreciation. However, its intervention has been measured, aimed at preventing disorderly market conditions rather than defending a specific level.
Market Sentiment and Currency Outlook
-
The rupee opened at 87.73 and quickly slipped to 87.76 in early trade before settling at 87.92
-
Traders expect the rupee to remain range-bound between 87.40 and 88.00 in the near term
-
The dollar index rose 0.18 percent to 97.99, reflecting global strength of the greenback
-
Brent crude eased to USD 68.17 per barrel, offering some relief on the import bill front
Despite the softer dollar and cooling oil prices, sentiment remains fragile. Analysts warn that unless export competitiveness is restored and capital inflows resume, the rupee may face further downside risks.
Policy Response and Mitigation Measures
The Indian government is reportedly working on a multi-pronged strategy to cushion the impact of the US tariffs and rupee depreciation:
-
Export promotion missions to diversify trade partners and product mix
-
Loan moratoriums and credit support for affected exporters
-
Strategic currency management in coordination with RBI
-
Accelerated disbursement of export incentives under MEIS and RoDTEP schemes
The RBI’s latest bulletin also flagged downside risks to domestic demand due to global trade uncertainties, although it noted a more benign inflation outlook for the near term.
Sectoral Impact and Investment Implications
Import-heavy sectors such as electronics, oil & gas, and capital goods may face margin pressure
Export-oriented industries like textiles, pharmaceuticals, and IT services could benefit from rupee weakness, provided tariff barriers are addressed
Equity markets remain volatile, with Sensex up 197 points and Nifty gaining 63 points in early trade, reflecting mixed investor sentiment
Currency-sensitive stocks and debt instruments may see heightened volatility in the coming weeks
Conclusion
The rupee’s slide to 87.92 against the US dollar underscores the delicate balance India must maintain between external shocks and internal resilience. While RBI and government measures offer short-term relief, structural reforms in trade, capital flows, and currency management will be key to long-term stability. Investors and policymakers alike will be watching closely as the rupee navigates this turbulent phase.
Sources: Business Standard, Rediff Money, The Hindu, Bloomberg FX Spot Rate
