Russian Oil Discounts Lose Lure; India Shifts Gears in Energy Play

Updated: November 25, 2025 23:22

Image Source: Dhanam Online

India's imports of Russian crude oil, which peaked in November, are expected to drop to a three-year low in December due to intensified Western sanctions and banking scrutiny. Refiners are shifting to alternative sources amid growing regulatory and diplomatic pressures.

India's robust appetite for discounted Russian oil is poised for a significant slowdown starting December, marking a sharp policy and operational shift among Indian refiners. While November saw import volumes surge to their highest in five months, the mounting pressure from US, UK, and EU sanctions on Moscow's major oil producers Rosneft and Lukoil has compelled Indian buyers to drastically cut back.

Key Highlights:

November Peak in Russian Oil Imports: Indian refiners capitalized on deep discounts to boost purchases in November, hitting multi-month highs ahead of looming sanctions deadlines.
December Import Slowdown: Imports are forecasted to plummet to their lowest levels in over three years, with Indian state refiners exercising extreme caution due to increased scrutiny from banking partners and regulatory bodies.
Sanctions Deadlines and Impact: US sanctions effective November 21 force buyers to end transactions with Rosneft and Lukoil, while the EU will reject fuel linked to Russian crude processed after January 21.
Refiners’ Strategic Shift: Major entities like Nayara Energy, Indian Oil Corp, and Bharat Petroleum have curtailed or ceased imports from sanctioned Russian suppliers, seeking alternative crude to maintain energy security.
Rising US Oil Imports: Concurrently, the share of US oil in India's imports surged, reflecting a strategic pivot as Washington pressures Delhi to reduce Russian crude dependency.

This transition comes amid broader geopolitical tensions and sharp changes in global oil trade dynamics. Indian refiners, balancing regulatory compliance with energy demands, are navigating a complex landscape marked by pricing arbitrage, supply chain diversification, and diplomatic considerations.

The evolving scenario will have implications for India's energy security, refinery operations, and foreign relations, especially as Russia’s oil exports to India diminish and alternate suppliers fill the gap. Observers note this could recalibrate India's crude oil import portfolio significantly in 2026.

Sources: Reuters, Business Today, Bloomberg, The Hindu Business Line, Economic Times.

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