As the festive season approaches, Samsung India has projected that smartphone sales volume during this critical period may remain largely flat compared to last year, despite factors such as a general GST cut and a strong monsoon season boosting consumer spending. The company anticipates that while overall volume may not see significant growth, value sales or revenue are likely to increase as consumers opt for premium devices amid shifting upgrade patterns.
Volume Growth to Remain Muted
Samsung India’s Mobile Business Head, Raju Pullan, explained that urban consumers are lengthening their device replacement cycle to approximately 30 months, delaying upgrades. In contrast, rural and smaller-town customers owning older budget smartphones are expected to upgrade, balancing the overall volume but keeping growth modest.
Shift Toward Premium Devices
Despite volume stagnation, Samsung expects the average selling price of smartphones to rise during this upgrade cycle. Consumers with increased disposable income, partly due to GST benefits on other categories, are more likely to invest in feature-rich and premium devices, contributing to higher value sales.
Strong Performance in Galaxy A Series
Samsung’s affordable yet popular Galaxy A Series continues to drive growth. Having sold roughly 96 million units since its 2019 launch, the company expects the festive season to help cross 100 million sales in India. The new Galaxy A17 5G, featuring AI enhancements, large batteries, and competitive pricing, will play a major role with reported 1.3x sales growth year-on-year.
Economic and Market Context
Importance of the Festive Season
The festive period from Onam up to Diwali, covering Navratri, Durga Puja, and Dussehra, accounts for about 30-40% of annual sales in multiple categories including smartphones. However, this year, flat unit growth despite positive consumption signals indicates a complex market dynamic driven by consumption patterns and price sensitivities.
Impact of GST on Smartphones
Samsung noted no direct GST cut on smartphones themselves, although general GST reductions elsewhere help bolster purchasing power of end consumers. Indirectly, this aids the purchase of higher-value phones in rural and semi-urban areas.
Competition and Market Share
According to IDC, Samsung holds about 14.5% market share in India’s smartphone segment by volume behind leaders like Vivo (19%) and Oppo (13.4%) as of Q2 2025. Samsung remains strong in premium segments with flagship Galaxy devices showing healthy sales prospects.
Sales and Marketing Initiatives
Samsung is stepping up festive season efforts with three new smartphone launches, increased retailer presence by 20%, enhanced retail margins, and no-cost EMI offers extending up to 10 months, up from the previous 6 months. This aggressive marketing is designed to capture incremental market share amid pricing pressures.
Future Potential and Challenges
While rural upgrades provide some growth impetus, elongated replacement cycles in urban areas pose challenges to volume expansion. Industry experts expect the value growth driven by premium devices, emerging 5G adoption, and AI-powered smartphone features will offset volume stagnation.
Conclusion: A Season of Value Over Volume in India’s Smartphone Market
Samsung India’s forecast for the 2025 festive season underscores a maturing market characterized by longer upgrade cycles in urban centers and growing premiumization in smaller towns. While unit sales may remain flat, the focus on value growth, driven by innovative products and stronger consumer spending, sets the trajectory for sustainable sector gains.
Sources: Economic Times, Moneycontrol, IDC India, Samsung India official statements, Communication Today
