In the wake of ongoing trade tensions and increased tariffs imposed by former US President Donald Trump on Indian goods, Vikas Gupta, CEO and Chief Investment Strategist at Omniscience Capital, has expressed confident views about India’s economic future. Gupta reassures investors and stakeholders that India is poised not only to survive but to thrive in the near, mid, and long term despite the short-term pain caused by the tariffs. This positive outlook stems from India’s resilient economic fundamentals, government policy measures, and ongoing structural reforms strengthening domestic growth.
Key Takeaways From Vikas Gupta’s Perspective
India’s Robust Growth Potential
Gupta emphasizes that India’s growth trajectory remains strong despite tariff hurdles, supported by a comprehensive investment cycle initiated by the central government. He foresees continued momentum, particularly as infrastructure and capital investments ramp up following a relative slowdown during 2024 due to elections.
Managing Tariff Impacts with Strategic Policy Measures
According to Gupta, the Indian government is expected to quietly implement sector-specific policies aimed at mitigating the tariff impact on exporters and protecting jobs. These interventions may not make headlines but will play a crucial role in stabilizing vulnerable sectors and creating alternative market opportunities, including encouraging foreign direct investments from BRICS countries and the European Union.
Sectoral Insights and Portfolio Strategy
Gupta points out that his investment portfolio strategically minimizes exposure to export-driven companies most affected by the tariffs, focusing more on domestic growth-oriented sectors like housing finance and business services firms that cater to consumption-focused companies. This diversification shields the portfolio from adverse tariff effects.
Near-Term Challenges and Long-Term Optimism
While acknowledging the short-term frictions caused by tariffs, Gupta notes that the overall GDP growth impact is likely moderate, with estimated reductions around 40-100 basis points. Despite this, India’s deeper domestic consumption base and high GDP growth rate—consistently among the fastest globally—provide a strong foundation for resilience.
The ongoing government investment cycle and increasing private sector participation will cushion against external shocks. Gupta remains optimistic that the economy will see a strong earnings recovery in the second half of fiscal year 2025-26, signaling renewed business confidence.
Alternative Markets and Global Positioning
Gupta predicts Indian exporters will seek to diversify beyond traditional US markets, exploring emerging economies and fostering deeper trade ties with BRICS and European partners. This strategic pivot will lessen dependence on tariff-affected markets and open new avenues for growth.
Additionally, potential quiet policy measures will support exporters and help sustain employment, reflecting a proactive but discreet government approach to diplomacy and economic management.
Implications for Investors and Businesses
For investors, Gupta advises remaining focused on scientifically selected sectors with strong fundamentals and growth potential rather than reacting impulsively to tariff news. Companies aligned with domestic consumption and business services are positioned to outperform during this adjustment phase.
He also indicates that growth in sectors like housing finance and select private banks will provide stable consumption-related investment opportunities, balancing risk induced by international trade uncertainties.
Conclusion: India’s Resilience and Growth Story Remains Intact
Vikas Gupta’s insights provide assurance that India’s economy, despite facing external tariff pressures, is built on solid structural reforms, strong consumption demand, and proactive government policies. India’s growth narrative continues well beyond short-term challenges, positioning the country to thrive in both near and long-term horizons.
The combination of domestic demand strength, infrastructure investments, and strategic market diversification underscores a confident outlook for India’s economic future amid geopolitical uncertainties.
Sources: Moneycontrol, Bloomberg, Economic Times, Omniscience Capital official releases, Reuters
