Raw Sugar Bounces from 2.5-Year Low, but Market Faces Supply Overhang

Raw sugar prices have staged a modest rally after diving to a 2.5-year low early in the month, with futures recently moving back above 19 cents/lb. The turnaround was fronted by concerns over smaller-than-expected harvests in India, Pakistan, and Thailand, along with weather threats in Brazil—the wo...

Raw sugar prices have staged a modest rally after diving to a 2.5-year low early in the month, with futures recently moving back above 19 cents/lb. The turnaround was fronted by concerns over smaller-than-expected harvests in India, Pakistan, and Thailand, along with weather threats in Brazil—the world's biggest producer. Despite this rebound, analysts warn that the market still remains under pressure from abundant global supplies in the second half of 2025, as Brazil's harvest gets underway and EU stock levels stay firm. Speculators remain net sellers, but low stocks in importing countries and a strong white sugar premium are giving some support to prices. Most analysts expect sugar to trade in the 17–20 cents/lb range for much of the year, with volatility likely as new supply data is released. Source: Commodity Board, NFU Online, Trading Economics