Image Source: Upstox
Indian states are grappling with a sharp rise in borrowing costs as the spread between state government securities (SGS) and central government bonds hits a post-pandemic high. In its latest weekly note, ratings agency ICRA has flagged mounting fiscal pressures, citing investor apprehension and elevated supply as key drivers behind the widening yield gap. The development could have far-reaching implications for state-level debt servicing and budgetary planning in FY2026.
Key Developments from the September 2 SGS Auction
1. Twelve states collectively raised Rs 291 billion through SGS auctions, marking the largest weekly issuance in the current fiscal year.
2. The auction volume was 36 percent higher than the indicative borrowing calendar for Q2 FY2026, although some bids were rejected, keeping the total below the notified amount.
3. The weighted average cut-off yield rose to 7.54 percent, the highest since February 2024, up from 7.48 percent the previous week.
4. The spread between the 10-year SGS cut-off and the equivalent central government bond yield widened to 109 basis points, up from 81 basis points—a level not seen since the pandemic.
Investor Sentiment and Market Dynamics
- The sharp rise in spreads reflects growing investor concerns over state-level fiscal health and the risk premium demanded amid elevated supply.
- Central government bonds continue to be perceived as safer, prompting investors to seek higher compensation for lending to states.
- Liquidity constraints in the broader market, exacerbated by the Union government’s sovereign borrowing programme, have left limited room for state issuances.
Borrowing Trends and Fiscal Implications
- States have cumulatively raised Rs 4.08 trillion through SGS auctions so far in FY2026, a 26 percent increase over the Rs 3.24 trillion mobilized during the same period last year.
- The September 2 auction alone saw a 41.5 percent jump in weekly issuance compared to the corresponding week in FY2024.
- The weighted average tenor of securities nudged up to 18 years from 17 years, indicating a preference for longer-term debt amid rising costs.
ICRA’s Cautionary Note
- ICRA warns that if the elevated spreads persist, states may face challenges in rolling over debt at sustainable costs.
- Recent auctions have consistently exceeded indicative issuance levels, suggesting a trend that could continue to exert upward pressure on yields.
- The agency highlights the uneven fiscal dynamics between the Union and state governments, with states increasingly reliant on market borrowings to bridge budgetary gaps.
Strategic Takeaways for Policymakers and Market Participants
- The widening SGS-Gilt spread is a signal for state governments to reassess their borrowing strategies and fiscal discipline.
- Investors are clearly pricing in higher risk, which could prompt states to explore alternative funding mechanisms or push for greater central transfers.
- The current trajectory underscores the need for coordinated fiscal planning between the Centre and states to avoid crowding out and ensure manageable debt servicing.
-
Conclusion
As borrowing costs climb and spreads widen, Indian states are entering a more challenging phase of fiscal management. The September 2 auction serves as a bellwether for the months ahead, with implications not just for state budgets but also for broader macroeconomic stability. ICRA’s analysis offers a timely reminder that fiscal prudence and strategic debt planning will be crucial in navigating the evolving landscape of public finance.
Source: BW Business World
Advertisement
Advertisement
