The recently signed India-UK Free Trade Agreement (FTA) is set to redefine the whisky market in India, the largest whisky market globally. With deep cuts in import duties on Scotch whisky and gin, both international behemoths and local players expect fundamental changes in pricing, affordability, and market forces. United Spirits, which has a dominant presence in India's spirits industry and is owned by Diageo, anticipates that the FTA will make costs more accessible, increase consumer choice, and drive premiumization in the industry.
Reduction in Tariffs and Timeline
-
The FTA will lower duty on Scotch whisky and gin from 150% to 75% with effect from now, and further to 40% by the tenth anniversary of the FTA.
-
The phased cuts in tariffs are likely to be incorporated fully into law and in force by fiscal year 2027.
Market Impact and Consumer Benefits
-
The reduction in duty may reduce retail prices for Scotch whisky by 7.5% if state-level taxes do not change.
-
Premium brands of Scotch such as Johnnie Walker and Chivas Regal may experience year-on-year volume growth of 10–15% as the price competes more effectively.
-
Diageo and United Spirits will be sharing the gains from reduced duties with consumers to ensure premium spirits become more affordable.
Industry and Corporate Responses
-
United Spirits' luxury and premium segment, which accounted for 32% of its net sales in FY24, will see considerable benefits from higher volumes and better margins.
-
International brokerage Citi forecasts an 8–10% volume growth for the premium and luxury segment because of increased consumption and new consumers of Scotch whisky.
-
Local players such as Radico Khaitan and Allied Blenders & Distillers also foresee cost reductions and higher competitiveness for their premium brands.
Wider Economic and Trade Implications
-
The Indian whisky industry, which had a value of $19.16 billion in 2024, is set to double more than twice to $48.65 billion by 2030, boosted by increasing incomes and urbanization.
-
The FTA is estimated to contribute £4.8 billion to the UK economy and enhance bilateral trade by £25.5 billion, while lifting Indian federal and state revenues by £3.3 billion a year.
-
The Scotch Whisky Association puts the deal at £1 billion in potential increase in whisky exports to India within the next five years and 1,200 UK jobs.
Challenges and Industry Debate
Domestic distillers, while foreign competitors and premium segment buyers rejoice, feel uneasy with the prospects of greater competition and demands for Indian spirits' reciprocal market access on foreign markets.
Meeting the government export targets for Indian spirits will need non-tariff barriers in markets such as the UK, EU, and Australia to be addressed.
Sources: Policy Circle, CNBC TV18, Times of India, Economic Times, Forbes, Rediff Money
Advertisement
Advertisement
