GAIL India executives forecast softening of Henry Hub-linked LNG prices, which could bring relief to the Indian natural gas sector. Amidst high Asian spot LNG prices and slowing demand, the expectation of increased global liquefaction capacity from 2026 onward may lead to price moderation.
                                        
                        
	GAIL India, a leading natural gas company, anticipates a reduction in Henry Hub LNG prices, driven by upcoming expansions in global liquefaction capacity. Henry Hub, the US benchmark price for natural gas, currently trades significantly lower than Asian spot LNG prices, offering GAIL a cost advantage through its long-term US-linked contracts.
	 
	Market reports indicate that while Asian spot LNG prices remain high ($11–13/mmbtu), the Henry Hub price stays around $3–3.5/mmbtu. This pricing gap places GAIL in a stronger position compared to other Indian gas distributors reliant on costlier spot LNG.
	 
	The global LNG capacity expansion expected from 2026, with major projects in the US, Qatar, Russia, and Canada, could increase supply and soften prices. GAIL aims to capitalize on this trend by adding medium- to long-term LNG contracts, potentially expanding its LNG portfolio to 20-21 million tonnes per annum by 2030.
	 
	However, the Indian gas market currently faces stagnant demand and slipping domestic production, emphasizing the importance of competitive imported LNG pricing.
	 
	Key Highlights
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		GAIL India expects Henry Hub LNG prices to soften in coming years.
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		Henry Hub prices (~$3–3.5/mmbtu) remain much lower than Asian spot LNG ($11–13/mmbtu).
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		Global LNG capacity expansion from 2026 could ease prices.
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		GAIL’s US-linked contracts provide cost advantage over spot LNG buyers in India.
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		Indian gas demand is flat with declining domestic production.
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		GAIL plans to increase LNG portfolio to 20-21 million tonnes per annum by 2030.
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		Price moderation critical for revitalizing India’s gas market growth.
	Sources: Financial Express, JM Financial, Argus Media, ScanX