India’s Inflation Engine Revved by Manufacturing—Fuel Prices Hit the Brakes

India’s wholesale inflation, measured by the Wholesale Price Index (WPI), rebounded into positive territory in August 2025, clocking in at 0.52% year-on-year, according to data released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry. This marks a significant turnaround from July’s contraction of -0.58%, and notably exceeds the Reuters poll estimate of 0.30%, signaling stronger-than-expected price pressures across key sectors.

 

The uptick in WPI inflation was driven primarily by a sharp rise in manufacturing prices, which surged 2.55% year-on-year, and a modest increase in food prices, up 0.21%. However, the overall index was tempered by a continued decline in fuel and power prices, which fell -3.17% in August.

 

Manufacturing Inflation: The Engine Behind the Rebound

The standout contributor to August’s WPI recovery was the manufacturing sector. After months of subdued pricing, manufacturers saw a notable increase in input costs and finished goods prices. This 2.55% rise in manufacturing inflation reflects higher prices for basic metals, transport equipment, and non-metallic mineral products.

 

Industry analysts attribute this surge to:

The manufacturing sector’s pricing power appears to be strengthening, which could have downstream effects on retail inflation and consumer goods pricing in the coming months.

 

Fuel and Power: A Deflationary Drag

In contrast, the fuel and power index continued its downward trajectory, falling -3.17% in August compared to -2.43% in July. This marks the fifth consecutive month of decline, driven by lower global crude oil prices and subdued domestic energy demand.

 

Crude petroleum and natural gas prices, in particular, saw a steep drop of -9.87%, reflecting both international market softness and domestic supply adjustments. While this decline offers relief to energy-intensive industries, it also dampens the overall inflation picture.

 

Food Prices: A Mild Recovery

After months of deflation, food prices edged back into positive territory, rising 0.21% year-on-year in August. This follows a sharp contraction of -2.15% in July, and signals a gradual normalization in agricultural commodity pricing.

 

The increase was broad-based, with notable gains in:

However, the food index remains volatile, with weather-related disruptions and supply chain bottlenecks continuing to pose risks. The government has indicated that food inflation could rise further in the coming months, especially if monsoon variability affects crop yields.

 

Broader Economic Implications

The return to positive WPI inflation suggests that India’s wholesale price environment is stabilizing after months of contraction. While the headline figure remains modest, the underlying sectoral trends point to a complex inflation landscape:

This nuanced picture will be closely watched by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which is balancing inflation control with growth stimulation. Although WPI is not the central bank’s primary inflation metric (CPI is), wholesale trends often serve as a leading indicator for retail price movements.

 

Outlook for September and Beyond

Looking ahead, economists expect WPI inflation to remain positive but subdued, with September figures likely influenced by:

The government has emphasized its commitment to monitoring inflationary pressures and ensuring price stability through targeted interventions.

 

Sources: MSN, Business Standard, Press Information Bureau