Malaysia palm oil check: exports shrink, stocks swell as demand cools and output eases

Exports slip, inventories build

Cargo surveyor estimates show November exports falling sharply versus October as key buyers in India, the EU and China trim purchases amid high prices and competition from cheaper soyoil and sunflower oil. With production easing only slightly, inventories in the world’s second‑largest producer are expected to rise towards 2.66 million tons, near multi‑year highs and broadly in line with earlier forecasts of elevated year‑end stocks.​

Key highlights

Exports: November shipments are expected around 1.44 million tons, nearly 15% lower than October cargoes tracked by surveyors such as Amspec and ITS.​

Stocks: End‑November inventories forecast at 2.66 million tons, implying another month of stock build after October’s 2.46‑million‑ton peak.​

Output: CPO production estimated at 1.98 million tons, down about 3% month-on-month, consistent with the usual seasonal slowdown in November and December.​

Price implications: Rising stocks and softer exports have recently dragged Malaysian palm oil futures towards four‑month lows near 4,050 ringgit per ton.​

Market watch: Traders are eyeing Indonesia’s biodiesel mandate, weather‑driven output risks and any rebound in Indian and Chinese buying ahead of festive demand in early 2026.​

Sources: Reuters palm oil surveys; Amspec/ITS export trackers