A Reuters poll of economists projects UK GDP growth to average 1.4% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026, slightly weaker than October’s forecast. The survey also indicates the Bank of England is expected to cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% in December.
According to the latest Reuters poll, economists expect the UK economy to expand at a slower pace than previously projected. GDP growth is now forecast at 1.4% in 2025 and 1.1% in 2026, compared with 1.4% and 1.2% in the October survey. Analysts cite persistent inflationary pressures, weak consumer demand, and global uncertainties as factors weighing on the outlook.
Meanwhile, 48 of 61 economists surveyed anticipate the Bank of England will lower its bank rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% at its December meeting. The move would mark the first rate cut since the tightening cycle began, reflecting easing inflation and the need to support growth.
Important points
-
UK GDP growth forecast trimmed to 1.4% (2025) and 1.1% (2026)
-
October poll had projected 1.4% and 1.2% respectively
-
Bank of England expected to cut rate by 25 bps to 3.75% in December
-
48 of 61 economists support the rate cut view
-
Rate cut seen as balancing inflation control with growth support
Sources: Reuters Poll, Reuters UK Business News