Rupee Set to Gain Ground: Reuters Poll Predicts INR at 88.00 per Dollar by Year-End

India’s currency is expected to strengthen modestly against the US dollar over the next year, according to a Reuters poll of economists and market analysts. The Indian rupee, which has hovered around 83.20 per dollar in recent weeks, is projected to appreciate to 88.00 by December 2025, with further gains anticipated through September 2026.  

Key projections  
- INR/USD forecast to reach 88.00 by end-December 2025  
- Expected to trade at 87.94 by end-March 2026  
- Slight uptick to 87.95 projected by end-September 2026  

Drivers of appreciation  
- Anticipated moderation in US interest rates could reduce dollar strength globally  
- India’s robust foreign exchange reserves and stable macroeconomic indicators support rupee resilience  
- Strong capital inflows, particularly through IPOs and foreign direct investment, are expected to bolster demand for the rupee  
- The Reserve Bank of India’s cautious intervention strategy has helped maintain currency stability  

Market sentiment  
- Analysts remain cautiously optimistic, citing India’s improving current account balance and controlled inflation  
- Exporters may face margin pressure if the rupee strengthens too quickly, while importers stand to benefit from cheaper dollar-denominated goods  
- The rupee’s trajectory will also depend on geopolitical developments and global oil prices  

Outlook  
- While the rupee is not expected to surge dramatically, its steady appreciation reflects confidence in India’s economic fundamentals  
- Traders and corporates are advised to hedge currency exposures as volatility remains a possibility  

Sources: Reuters, Economic Times, Business Standard, Livemint